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KJo reshove with probably no fold equity

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Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $600(BB) Replayer
Hero ($2,655)
BB ($6,240)
CO ($4,740)
BTN ($6,365)

Dealt to Hero J♠ K♣

CO raises to $1,200, fold, Hero raises to $2,655 (AI),
Hero shows J♠ K♣

Wasn't expecting fold equity here but was just hoping to get it in with a hand with decent equity against his range, I think mostly flipping (~40/60) and rarely dominated.

This guy was opening a lot of pots with a minraise

In ICM Explorer
Assuming we have like 34% vs 66+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo, he only has to fold 1/3 for it to be profitable.


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8 replies
kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Who is villain?Is the BB loose? Anyway, I will fold my hand pretty quickly here. 34% is way too much imo. He can even play a monster in a weird fashion. He is a midstack on the bubble. He has to be very, very tight in that spot. I wouldn't expect him to raise/fold more than 10% of the time.


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There was some kind of weird dynamic on this table on the bubble, the BB was by far the tightest, he had a chip lead but blinded down to 2nd now, and not doing much at all but the two midstacks were opening their hands with minraises and mostly getting away with it.

In the hand before this, I flatted in the BB vs the same villain with just 3bb then, and shoved the flop, we chopped, him with A8 and I had A6.

Anyway I made a mistake in my original post with the icm explorer calculations, using the same assumptions from earlier.

Calls allowed at 0.3 equity: 60.59%
Equity needed at 30% folds: 0.3698


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he never folds for 1.4k more. your FE is ZERO imo.

with that dynamic it looks like an OK spot for a stopngo. you will have 1.4k left in a 2.7k pot. i think you get more FE by stop n go than by jamming pre.


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never say never, he folded here.. :P


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Originally posted by elhh82
never say never, he folded here.. :P

This is almost as unbelievable as seeing Elvis! You never know though, you just proved it!


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Originally posted by kurrkabin

Originally posted by elhh82
never say never, he folded here.. :P

This is almost as unbelievable as seeing Elvis! You never know though, you just proved it!

believe it, it's party poker, party all the time!


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

God bless!


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haha i had a feeling you would say that.

well makes your shove really really really good. if he folds.


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