NL100 A9o, fire multible barrels against fish?

I think spot is OK. He could fold Jx on the river. U should bet bigger on flop imo, fish will never fold vs 1/2pot bet

I actually don't see any reason in betting bigger. Either he has hit a piece of the board and will call me regardless of the sizing or he hasn't and he'll most likely just fold.

I'd check the flop in the first place.
Most of his range has hit something as Jx is well in there as well as most SCs - and a lot of them have straightdraws he's not folding.
While we could therefore valuebet vs them I prefer to check and bet the turn for thin value vs those draws.
The problem with the cbet is exactly this: you don't have too much FEQ and end up barreling a fish with air, which is sometimes ok but when I can avoid a spot where I expect to end up 3barreling vs a fish, I do so.

As played I definitely bet turn&river, vs the lead it's an easy fold though (I found this line to be quite strong).

I actually think the cbet is ok. I played with some ranges in equilator and this were my results:

I think he will call these hands pre:

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378 combos.

Whereas he will continue with these:

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194 combos

194/378 = ~0.51 -> 51%, i.e. he will call the flop with 51% of his range.

1/2 pot cbet needs 33% FEQ, and we do win the hand at showdown from time to time, so lets say some % less.

Then there are however a possibility that he will call the flop ligher, with maybe some overcards (cant remember his fold to cbet%). He does however have a pretty low WTS, so he probably doesn't peel the flop too light.

I still think the cbet is OK. But feel free to prove me wrong

Originally posted by Bierbaer
I'd check the flop in the first place.
Most of his range has hit something as Jx is well in there as well as most SCs - and a lot of them have straightdraws he's not folding.
While we could therefore valuebet vs them I prefer to check and bet the turn for thin value vs those draws.
The problem with the cbet is exactly this: you don't have too much FEQ and end up barreling a fish with air, which is sometimes ok but when I can avoid a spot where I expect to end up 3barreling vs a fish, I do so.

As played I definitely bet turn&river, vs the lead it's an easy fold though (I found this line to be quite strong).

I think I disagree and like to bet three streets here, often getting folds otf and very often getting folds ott.

As played, obv double barrel the king, but make it a little bit bigger, 10.50.

River is good for you because he just saved you your third bullet

@axel
I thought we have less foldequity, given your argument a cbet is indeed an option.
However, consider that by checking the flop we're not giving up! Oftentimes he'll check the turn to us and we can still bet and take it down.

@pleno
Agree with you too, a 3barrel generall is an option.
But then again the question is wether we really want to 3barrel a semifish with air - even though it's probably +EV, the EV is usually not as high because you see them stubbornly calling down TP - and in case our estimations about his foldingrange are wrong we are playing a huge pot under the wrong assumptions which can get very costly very quickly.
Note that some reads can change my approach very quickly...