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$109 FR AQo vs utg fish, 18bb

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $100(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,840)
BB ($1,930)
UTG ($2,110)
UTG+1 ($1,980)
UTG+2 ($2,030)
MP1 ($1,465)
MP2 ($2,550)
CO ($4,270)
Hero ($1,825)

Dealt to Hero A♦ Q♥

fold, UTG+1 raises to $200, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $200, SB calls $150, fold

FLOP ($700) Q♦ J♥ T♠

SB checks, UTG+1 bets $350, Hero calls $350, SB folds

TURN ($1,400) Q♦ J♥ T♠ 3♥

UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($1,400) Q♦ J♥ T♠ 3♥ 9♠

UTG+1 bets $700, Hero folds

UTG+1 wins $1,400

Have villain marked as a fish (regfish); 20/12 (17% oR ep.), 500 hs; 71% cbet. Aggr 1.4 (1.0 on riv).

I fold this hand in this spot vs a decent reg. I think we can make an argument for calling here vs a weaker player, for a minR. Is that reasonable?

Post flop, is there any other way to play vs this guy? I dont expect villain to fold any better hands if we raise the flop...

thx


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2 replies
Puscherbilbo
Joined: 17.06.2009

If he should really open pre with 18% from EP than I actually prefer to repush here. It should be +EV regardless of his play and it is much easier as well. If we call it is very likely that we face a cbet and have to fold most of the time. We might run into trouble of playing our hand to face up, if we resteal or 3bet our nuttish hands. AQ is most likely our best hand on an Qxxr-board and he has AA-QQ as well as AQ + possible Sets. Esspecially oop we may even be unable to stack of vs KQ/QJ/QT-type hands.
The exception would be, if BB were a huge Fish whom we actually want in the hand, I guess.

However I am not even convinced that this is actually the case here. Assuming you have 500 Hands total you need to discount those with higher blindlvl (where >20% is sometimes even good) and lower blindlvls (as he might be tightening up a lot as well). Basically 18% is an average and should not be confused with actual PFR-stats. It would be far more telling if he came up at SD with a hand like ATo, QJs or 55.
If you actually have 500 hands of this guy filtered for EG and by stacksizes (maybe 30-10 or sth similar) then you could take those 18% far more serious.

As played:
We have to call the Flop at least once but facing further action we are behind against everything out of his valuerange and since he is not going to bluff all that often -> fold. Raising the Flop does not make sense either since he is not going to fold 2pair.


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i think the flat is fine vs a regfish. we can take the pot IP. reshove is also ok with those stats, but hes probably not calling AJ. so its just a reshove to get folds. which is ok with your stack but you might get some more value out of a flat.

wp post. pretty ugly board


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