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ATs bubble

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This hand i play in Mtsng 27 max tourney, 15$.

I want to ask, thats a correct play?I have reads on UTG raiser, he are very agressive player, and i think he open on this possition very light.
His stats Raise first
EP 29 MP 54 CU 75 BU 75

Now i look at this statictic, and think the better way shove on MP vs CU sitiation...
But if he open 29% and all player on this table are very tight, blinds are real rock, i think he can try to steal blinds.
I think he fold 3 times, and 1 time he call me with JJ+,AQ+, not sure about JJ and AQ...but ok.So i have 30% Eq and this is good shove? ?(

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $600(BB) Replayer
SB ($3,502)
BB ($3,510)
UTG ($13,370)
Hero ($11,054)
CO ($3,896)
BTN ($5,168)

Dealt to Hero A♠ T♠

UTG raises to $1,200, Hero raises to $11,004 (AI), fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $9,804

FLOP ($23,208) 4♠ J♠ 3♥

TURN ($23,208) 4♠ J♠ 3♥ A♣

RIVER ($23,208) 4♠ J♠ 3♥ A♣ Q♥

UTG shows Q♠ Q♦
(Pre 68%, Flop 55.9%, Turn 4.5%)

Hero shows A♠ T♠
(Pre 32%, Flop 44.1%, Turn 95.5%)

UTG wins $23,208


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8 replies

easy fold


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TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

standard fold considering SB/BB stacks its not like he will be light there very often
but if u had reads that he is opening light from UTG u can just 3bet ~3-3,2k and fold if he shove u get same results he is shoving same hands that he will call your shove

also just flat is ok but u got to call 3bet shove from every other player(except btn) if UTG fold when some one shove


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_Anonymous_ Topic starter
_Anonymous_

Originally posted by TheRebuz
standard fold considering SB/BB stacks its not like he will be light there very often
but if u had reads that he is opening light from UTG u can just 3bet ~3-3,2k and fold if he shove u get same results he is shoving same hands that he will call your shove

also just flat is ok but u got to call 3bet shove from every other player(except btn) if UTG fold when some one shove

Yes, this a good idea.And 3b will look very strong and i think he is not so good played, to call me out off position and try to move with some marginal hands or 4 bet bluff.He look like just crazy agro raiser, but good fold to agression.
About call i have now idea what to do if some one shove, and UTG just call? :f_eek: i have a lot of situation like that and i prefer to fold and not go to the strange pot with week hand.


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Atoks
Joined: 01.06.2008

I know ATs always looks good, but very rarely it's played properly. U have the clearest of folds here, not because of the bubble situation, but mainly because there are so many players left behind u that might turn up with a better hand. That pretty much ruins ur equity. Clear and simple fold.


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TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

Originally posted by Atoks
I know ATs always looks good, but very rarely it's played properly. U have the clearest of folds here, not because of the bubble situation, but mainly because there are so many players left behind u that might turn up with a better hand. That pretty much ruins ur equity. Clear and simple fold.

lol at evaluation

first no 1 says is bubble EDIT: ups sorrry just realize that title is ATs bubble, but w/e imo buble doesnt change anything there

and second what ruining to our EQ we r talking about when all players behind here have less the 7bb

dont get me wrong I agree that this is standard fold in vacuum(readless) but not for reasons that u said

ask your self this
do we open fold this hand first in in this spot? that will give answer to EQ thing


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Atoks
Joined: 01.06.2008

Originally posted by TheRebuz

Originally posted by Atoks
I know ATs always looks good, but very rarely it's played properly. U have the clearest of folds here, not because of the bubble situation, but mainly because there are so many players left behind u that might turn up with a better hand. That pretty much ruins ur equity. Clear and simple fold.

lol at evaluation

first no 1 says is bubble EDIT: ups sorrry just realize that title is ATs bubble, but w/e imo buble doesnt change anything there

and second what ruining to our EQ we r talking about when all players behind here have less the 7bb

dont get me wrong I agree that this is standard fold in vacuum(readless) but not for reasons that u said

ask your self this
do we open fold this hand first in in this spot? that will give answer to EQ thing

Over-shove and open-fold are wildly different things. While it's true, there aren't very many combos of Ax type hands left after we analyse UTGs and our ranges, there is a considerable number of pair type hands that will surely call here (JJ+ for sure, often TT as well) and we will be way behind with our chances of victory in any kind of 3way pot. To top it off we are likely behind UTGs range as it is. Perhaps some of the obvious reasons why this is a fold are 2nd nature to urself and some other players as well.

There are other reasons that are also important as to why we shouldn't shove here. Pointing them out may help more people realise what their ranges should be in this situation compared to always discussing the basics. But I agree. I didn't do justice evaluating all the reasons for folding here. I'll keep that in mind for the future.


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TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

@atoks dont get me wrong i'm in folding pre camp (not for reasons that u say) and that imo is best standard play in this situation

but i'm just saying that with certain dynamic + reads 3betings could be great play
and cos is bubble + our 3 bet is practically all in for other players, left to act, so they should/will call very tight like 99+,AK and with death money from utg open (if utg fold) we have + EV play vs that range

shoving is very bad in this spot and 3bet is very superior cos
- 3bet looks stronger and villain will play for stacks with same range/we get same results if we 3bet or shove in this spot imo
- we wont bust if villain have top of his range and shove over our 3bet, we will still have like ~2x avg stack
- and in reality villain should be very good/sicko to shove over hero 3bet light in that spot on bubble so if he do that wp he deserve that chips


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chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

Hi all,

With 20bb please just resteal or fold vs a raise. I would fold here unless I feel he is a very loose opener. Against those stats this becomes a very easy resteal. No one behind us even has that many big blinds, so I'm not worried at all.


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