EDIT: another way of framing it is-> How do we translate chipEV into our Tournament EV? (on the bubble)
Ok that is really vague so I'll try and be more precise.
I've been calculating some stuff
blinds = 200/100, ante=50; on the bubble in an STT
We're in the BB, a guy in the SB raises 3x (to 600), the pot is 900. Our relative stacks are 3700. Therefore our stack to pot ratio (SPR) in this situ is 4.
When I wondered when a shove in this situation is profitable, I've come up with things like:
SB raises 47% but raise/calls only the top 5% of hands
Shove has massively positive chipEV when SPR=4 (it's positive up until SPR=20, where it gets closer to break-even)
if a guy raises 47% of hands but (reacting to our shove) calls only the top 5%, we can profitably (in terms of chipEV) shove any two. He will only call us 1 out of 9 times (the other 8 times we win 900 immediately), and even if we get called we have some equity, so chipEV in this spot [I'll skip the calculations] is massively positive up until SPR=20 where it starts to get break-even.
Guy raising 24% but calling only the top 5% of hands
Shove has positive chipEV when SPR=4 (it is positive until SPR goes to 12 - then it starts to be a close to break-even move)
if a guy raises 24% of hands but (reacting to our shove) calls only the top 5%, we can profitably (in terms of chipEV) shove any two. He will call us 1 out of 5 times (the other 4 times we win 900 immidiately), and even if we get called we have some equity, so chipEV in this spot [I'll skip the calculations] is massively positive up until SPR~12.
Bottom Line
The question I'm asking is how does the fact that we're on the Bubble affect that decision? We're risk averse, so we don't want to get into borderline spots (where chipEV is slightly positive). How much chipEV do we need in this spot to be able to say, ok, I've considered Bubble Risk Aversion, but the benefit from the shove is big enough for it to be a generally +EV move?
Cheers,
Matt
