Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #21 14.02.12

Well, the hand sampe is fairly small, but my conslusion based on the numbers would be:
1. villain is not that aggressive for 6-max (PFR, total AF).
2. his total limping range doesnt include medium-to-small suited connectors (according to Equilab, his range starts with T9s), pockets are 66+.

What is interesting about this hand is that we have the nut flush blocker, so I am inclined to believe that villain isnt raising us with flush draw (considering his passiveness). Unless, maybe it's KhQh or something.
Also, if villain was protecting his hand from possible draws, wouldn't villain raise bigger on flop, thinking that if UTG has a hand, he will pay off a bigger raise? Of course, it can be a trap, an invitation for a 3bet in return - but what for?

Hm, anyway, folding seems like too weak move here. If we ship, we don't get call from a worse hand, but we might scare of hands like A9, flush draws, and we will get snapped by set or so.

Hero should just call. We have a nut flush blocker, so we can go for fold equity on turn, if a third heart lands on the board (which also gives us a potential flush draw for river).

Hi,

I think that with a caller in front of him and absolute position BU's calling range is going to be pretty wide in spite of him looking tight/weak.

Given a wide range for him and his passiveness I expect his raising range on the flop to look something like this :

Board: 6♣5♥9♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    48.07%  47.53%   0.54% { AhAc }
MP3    51.93%  51.39%   0.54% { JJ-99, 66-55, 87s, 65s }

Given his very low 3bet he might not 3-bet even QQ but since we don' have any info on CO I don't think we can make that assumption.

I don't put in his range:
-flush draws, we block the nfd which I would expect to be almost the only one draw that he would raise because we represent some strength on this board.
-pair+gutshot, he is passive + we look strong, he will not try to make us fold but instead try to hit.

3-betting might make him fold some made hands from which our value comes so given that on a heart our equity goes to 55% and on a blank to 45%, I think that calling flop and leading turn would be the best play.

Board: 6♣5♥9♥ 2♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    45.29%  45.29%   0.00% { AhAc }
MP3    54.71%  54.71%   0.00% { JJ-99, 66-55, 87s, 65s }

Board: 6♣5♥9♥ K♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    55.98%  55.98%   0.00% { AhAc }
MP3    44.02%  44.02%   0.00% { JJ-99, 66-55, 87s, 65s }

Hello,

We had a long discussion in the coaching and came to this conclusion:

Lets talk about every situation:
a) Bet/Call - This option would be the worst option, cause it doesn't really make sense to give him free cards and if he has a draw we need to protect. If he has an overpair or whatsoever hand we are putting him on he is willing to pay. Therefore, if we even plan to Bet/Call then rather Bet/Broke. There are so many cards which will just scare away him where he wont ever continue and at the same time that goes for us.

b) Bet/Broke - This is the option which we spoke about and came to conclusion that we need ~43% equity here included rake, so without rake it would be even bigger. Which means that the range of the opponent has to be really wide to make it profitable. But could that even be true? Before that lets take a look at Bet/Fold.

c) Bet/Fold - Of course is going to be the safest option, this would be also an option with most other overpairs like TT-QQ or whatsoever.

So therefore lets take a small equilab result which we came out:

Board: 6♣5♥9♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    57.74%  57.15%   0.59% { 99, 66-55, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, QdQc, QhQc, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, JdJc, JhJc, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 87s, 65s, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, 8h7d, 8s7d, 8s7h, 8s7c, 8c7d, 8c7h, 8c7s, 6h5d, 6s5d, 6s5h, 6s5c, 6c5d, 6c5h, 6c5s }
UTG+1  42.26%  41.67%   0.59% { AhAc }

This is far the best range we could see here, we didn't include everything into his range cause he most likely wont have all them. Like he wouldn't always want to raise for value with TT-QQ and the same time he wont have all 87 hands and etc. As we knew we would need ~43% equity and which we don't get. Therefore the answer is: option c) Bet/Fold.

Best Regards.