Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,760)
BB ($2,000)
UTG ($2,000)
UTG+1 ($2,280)
Hero ($2,020)
BTN ($1,940)
Dealt to Hero Q♦ J♠
fold, fold, Hero raises to $80, fold, fold, BB calls $40
FLOP ($180) T♣ 9♦ 5♦
BB checks, Hero bets $120, BB calls $120
TURN ($420) T♣ 9♦ 5♦ 7♣
BB bets $240, Hero calls $240
RIVER ($900) T♣ 9♦ 5♦ 7♣ 2♦
BB bets $400, Hero folds
BB wins $900
17/13, 4.4 agg., 840 hs; Good reg though I don't have roi for him.
I think bottom of his range is my hand. When he check/c flop and leads turn i think most likely hands are AKs, TT/99, JJ and QQ (though only 3 combos). Assume he 3b KK/AA mostly, though perhaps slowplays from time to time. Also AdKd prolly ch/R flop a decent amount so we can discount.
I'm happy with my play up to riv. Turn play is close, but if he has a set, he is not getting away on riv and ocasionally our overcards will be good. (I think calling more than 300-320 would not be good - do you agree?). I think raising turn is probably bad since he may ship any of the above hands.
Main qn is the riv. His bet sizing looks to me like classic thin value size. I think he would always bet more with a flush. But, although we can rep a flush ourselves the way the hand ran out, when I bet this size it's normally with the intention of sigh-calling so I don't know if we should ever consider bluff shoving here vs a reg. Feel like that might be just playing into his hands.
thoughts?
thanks
(i may fold some of the bad diamond flushdraws, definitely calling any club flushdraws) as well as my good open enders/double gutshots like KJ and QJ, with the intention of getting paid! when I hit a straight (he's going to read us for a flushdraw a bunch when we do) and getting him to fold when a flush card hits. So when villain blockbets this river for this size, I ship on him.
