nl2 fr party - flopped top set with initiative

Hello slipkn6t,

Doubt that we can do much there, he can easily have a lot worse holdings.

Best Regards.

Originally posted by veriz
Hello slipkn6t,

Doubt that we can do much there, he can easily have a lot worse holdings.

Best Regards.

where exactly was his mistake? In cold calling preflop or in chasing the gutshot from flop? Calling my cbets for hitting a gutshot is very profitable I think, because I don't cbet such boards with just overcards and if you hit it I pay you 100bb

What effective stack does he need for his call to be profitable?
Like in calling with 22-88 you need a stack of minimum 20 times the raise size (call 20 rule), what about suited connectors?
Thanks.

http://resources.pokerstrategy.com/Editorial/en/Data/ps_chart_en_outs_und_odds.pdf

You get 5:1 odds on making a gutshot (flop to river). Therefore you hit a gutshot one in 6 times, so the maximum he should be investing to win a 100bb stack is ~16bb. Here he invests 30.5bb so over the long run loses almost double what he makes. Of course since he hits it on the turn he gets better odds than this but he also can't be sure that you will pay him off (pretty standard to cbet such a board). It definitely isn't profitable to chase gutshots like this in the long run.

Originally posted by numbnutter
pretty standard to cbet such a board

why is that?
I only cbet bluff boards with broadway cards like:
7♦J♣3♥
or:
A♠T♠5♦

T is a broadway card

Also it's pretty unlikely for him to have hit such a board so he will have a hard time continuing mostly.

where exactly was his mistake?

Sry, I missed that he got a GS on the turn. ♦ So practically he didn't play that horrible the hand.

what about suited connectors?

Implied odds, no specific rule for them.