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Live game. TP+OESD facing 2 All Ins

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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

Here is the action, Pot Limit, we are 8 handed:

UTG: (240€) Chinese young dude - gambler type, loose/passive I would say
MP3: (~450€) 25yo - Seems like a good reg. prob online player
CO: Hero (450€) My image is quite clean, only 2 3B pre so far all folded, a bit of post flop play but nothing major.
SB: (260€): 25-30yo not too sure but I would say badish reg.

UTG: Limps (2)
MP3: Raise (10)
Hero: Calls (10) w 5:s 3:s
SB: Calls (10)
UTG calls (10)

Flop: (40€) 2:c 4:h 5:h

UTG Checks
MP3 Bets 25€
Hero Raises to 85€
SB shoves to 250€
UTG calls for 230€
MP3 folds

Total pot at this point: 630€ and I have to call 165€ (3.8 to 1 ~ 21% pot odds)

UTG has a FD pretty sure but he can prob have a set too.
SB has either 2 pairs, FD or sets imo.
So they have pretty much the same range, since UTG is bad I also put him on Khxh

Board: 2c4h5h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 22.65% 19.51% 3.14% { 5s3s }
MP3 31.91% 29.30% 2.61% { 55-22, KhJh, AhTh, KhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Ah7h, Kh7h, Ah6h, Kh6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, Kh5h, Ah4h, Kh4h, Ah3h, Kh3h, Ah2h, Kh2h }
CO 45.44% 44.53% 0.91% { 55-44, 22, 54s, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h }

So looks like a BE call, also I have a small side pot vs SB which plays in my favour pot odds wise.


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3 replies
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I like the flopraise because imo the reg is unlikely to 3bet an overpair that deep and we can play very well on later streets given the deep stacks.
We could make it slightly smaller as here if we get called we have 250 in the pot and 350 left which sets up weird stacksizes and doesn't allow us to bluff the river unless we bet quite small on the turn.

Once they shove and call given it's so close, I'd fold. Imo especially SB is likely to have a stronger range (maybe no FDs at all) given the huge raise in front of him.
And UTG should fold all Khigh FDs for sure - even fish fold those here imo.

Board: 5♥4♥2♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    41.38%  37.68%   3.70% { 55-44, 22, A3s, 54s, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh }
BU     17.25%  12.94%   4.31% { 5s3s }
SB     41.38%  37.68%   3.70% { 55-44, 22, A3s, 54s, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh }

My assumptions are slightly more pessimistic, but the point is that we're not showing a profit in any case (BE move) and therefore I rather fold.
It prevents me from tilting and I keep the big stack and can play bigger pots vs the fish that is just about to double up.


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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

Flop raise is good indeed, that deep the reg won't fight back too much with overpair I think. (stack size are approximative though but we were def min 200-250 deep)

Once the 2 other guys shove it is def close. I ended up calling and SB shows 4:s 5:s and UTG shows K:h 8:h
(that's why I had put K high FD in UTG range but I agree it is terrible as SB or I can I nut FD).


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

I think we have to add some JJ-AA for the regs range, ofc sometimes he will fold it, but with live games, frustration, not seeing many hands, many will put people on draws and call it off.

I really think you should fold here, we actually have more reverse implieds rather that implieds imo.

I'd take out a bunch of the SB's range, he is almost definitely 3betting AKhh, however may call with some other hearts that jam here, q10hh etc

Pre flop

Fold >>>>> 3bet>>>>>>>>>>>> call pre.


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