cEV calc practice

assuming you are btn and shove 10bb 35% and both sb and bb call 11% range, then they both fold 79.21% of the times, so when you shove and they fold on average you win 0.7921*1.5bb=1.188bb

when called you have 39% equity, so you loose 10-20.75*0.39(average pot when bb or sb calls)=-1.91bb

so you loose 1.91-1.188=0.72bb each time you shove

that's without both of them calling

and now assuming they still call 11% our equity vs their calling range should be
10-20.75*X=0
X=10/20.75
X=48.2%
so we need to shove just about 12%, which looks retarded ♦

someone correct me if i'm wrong

lol at my lack of realisation it would be 79% of time. brainfart :(.

btw

what is this part representing?: "10-20.75"

10bb - 10bb effx2 opponents + blinds or something?

20,75 is total pot when one of them calls, 50% of the time it will be 21bb, and 50% it will be 20.5, so total is 20.75

it should just prob be 20.75*0.39-10, how many bb we win/lose

cheers big ears

if, for example, shoving 35% range is profitable, then it's still possible that with hands near the bottom of that 35% range our equity when called is so bad that shoving that particular hand is -EV.
so wouldn't it be worth looking at which hands are +EV?

maybe i'm missing something really obvious here ♦

indeed, Ive been segmenting my ranges a bit more (eg Ax grouped into A5o and below, and A6o+ and so on).

Unfortunately my work has been so intense this week, my brain can't handle numbers right now :O.

its now 8pm and i'm finally sitting down to relax, when I should actually be studying instead ( [x] lame)

Originally posted by Kruppe
if, for example, shoving 35% range is profitable, then it's still possible that with hands near the bottom of that 35% range our equity when called is so bad that shoving that particular hand is -EV.
so wouldn't it be worth looking at which hands are +EV?

maybe i'm missing something really obvious here ♦

that's totally true, some hands might be slightly -ev, as with 10bb we can prob take it

We really shouldn't have -ev shoves at all in an optimal strategy though.

Reason being, if we ensure you bluffs are at least breakeven, we will increase our overall EV. Am gonna have to address this asap.

reminds me of 3bet/4bet/5bet dynamics in cash. Diff reasons, same principal..