22$ 9Ts call vs a wide range

Joined: 12.10.2010

05.03.2012, 14:27 0

Ongame Network No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200.00/t400.00 Blinds - 8 players - View hand 1667626
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t2210.00 5.53 BBs
Hero (CO): t1315.00 3.29 BBs
BTN: t1440.00 3.60 BBs
SB: t2470.00 6.17 BBs
BB: t2600.00 6.50 BBs
UTG: t2570.00 6.42 BBs
UTG+1: t1590.00 3.98 BBs
MP1: t805.00 2.01 BBs

Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is CO with 9 :diamond: T
3 folds, MP2 raises to t2170, Hero calls t1315 all in, 3 folds

Flop: (t3230) 9 :club: 4 :club: K :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t3230) T :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t3230) J :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Antes in action. True BB t613. I have 2 true BB.

Villain is a weak reg. Everybody behind us is a reg as well. Most of them have their push/fold off. Not sure what they call here being this short. I expect mp2 to be on a wide range. However I set this in wiz, I can't make it a call. It is still shown as minus EV play. I just don't know why exactly though. There is 920 in the pot thanks to blinds and antes. I get amazing odds vs a relatively wide range with a hand that plays well even in multiway pots. We are also far from bubble, so ICM tax should be pretty small.

What hands do you call here?

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Gavron23

Joined: 26.05.2010

Posts: 2,727

05.03.2012, 19:02 0

My ICM for 9man is a bit rusty, but I guess its not a call in wizz cause you are in too early position, and despite his range maybe being wide, there are too many
people that can find a hand to overcall behind you. Maybe this would be fine If he was a CO and you BU or BU vs SB dunno.

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_Anonymous_

06.03.2012, 02:35 0

i just work out my exact pot odds here. work out how much eq i need in ICM explorer to call and call. i dont think taking a negative EV call is good here. better opportunities first in.

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kurrkabin

Joined: 12.10.2010

Posts: 5,893

06.03.2012, 13:08 0

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
i just work out my exact pot odds here. work out how much eq i need in ICM explorer to call and call. i dont think taking a negative EV call is good here. better opportunities first in.

It looks close!

Equity needed: 42.46%
Chip odds: 36.74%
Risk premium: 5.71%
Chips gained by marginal call: 198.23.
Ties count as 55.83% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $14.85.

What range would you push in mp2's spot?

22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o

is that too loose? Because that is only 39.37% of the hands and I do good equity wise vs it- 42.34% equity. + I think I should be taking negative edge. Everybody behind us is a reg, we have no FE, blind structure here is extreme. Blinds go up in a flash.

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_Anonymous_

06.03.2012, 20:25 0

good analysis, I think its fine to call given the numbers here. I wouldn't take the call if your equity was closer to 40%.

Taking -$EV calls as an FGS play is very risky and not one I would recommend doing unless you have some really good reasons. This is not a good spot for a big negative edge because you still have 4 hands before you hit the blinds, you still have a non-zero FE against the fish blinds in the future hands and you have a non-zero chance of picking up a monster. id much rather take a -$EV shove because you have the unknown factor of fold-equity.

this is fine, good analysis

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