$5, 9FR, 22 set turn fold

Do not 3-bet 22 pre flop!
As played i like your line i don't see him shoving without flush often enough.
Bet size is ok you want value from AQ, AK with one diamond etc.

Originally posted by Gerovit
Do not 3-bet 22 pre flop!

I wasn't, i won't, not even if they point a gun on my head! ♦

Glad you agree with my line, that just means i'm as good as you.

Originally posted by RovarTry

Originally posted by Gerovit
Do not 3-bet 22 pre flop!

I wasn't, i won't, not even if they point a gun on my head! ♦

Glad you agree with my line, that just means i'm as good as you.

Oh sorry i somehow misread that you 3-bet to 220 preflop probably was sleepy
And that is not like a super achievement to be good as me
fake modesty itt

Originally posted by Gerovit
Do not 3-bet 22 pre flop!
As played i like your line i don't see him shoving without flush often enough.
Bet size is ok you want value from AQ, AK with one diamond etc.

Made some simplified calculations:

Vs a flush our eq on the turn is 22%, vs something like AdQs, our eq is 82%. Considering BB raise as a shove, we need 35% eq to call (incl 4,6% risk premium). So how often exactly villain has to have a flush here for hero to fold this hand considering this against the alternatives of like AdQs or KdQs?

0,22x + 0,82(1-x) = 0,35

x=0,78,(3)

So villain has to have a flush at least 78%. Thats almost 4 out of 5. Does he really have a eg AdQs that seldom that we have to fold? And i didnt even take into account that sometimes he has Qx without a diamond or AA even or ....

Seems like a tough fold.

Originally posted by Luupainaja

Originally posted by Gerovit
Do not 3-bet 22 pre flop!
As played i like your line i don't see him shoving without flush often enough.
Bet size is ok you want value from AQ, AK with one diamond etc.

Made some simplified calculations:

Vs a flush our eq on the turn is 22%, vs something like AdQs, our eq is 82%. Considering BB raise as a shove, we need 35% eq to call (incl 4,6% risk premium). So how often exactly villain has to have a flush here for hero to fold this hand considering this against the alternatives of like AdQs or KdQs?

0,22x + 0,82(1-x) = 0,35

x=0,78,(3)

So villain has to have a flush at least 78%. Thats almost 4 out of 5. Does he really have a eg AdQs that seldom that we have to fold? And i didnt even take into account that sometimes he has Qx without a diamond or AA even or ....

Seems like a tough fold.

he can also have 33 or 88 vs which we are drawing dead.
We can't just put him on a two exact hands and calculate equity.
What made me believe that he is the kind of a player that would shove with flush more often than not is limping first in pre-flop which seems to be a pattern for loose-passive opponents which as a rule of thumb wont be aggressive without nuts (he can also be somewhat more reasonable villain that limps pockets for set-value which flopped set which is obv even worse for us) i both cases AQ as a limping hand is not that likely although he can indeed have some weaker Q in his range, question is only what hands he would shove with.

On the other hand if we add i.e. hands like A8 and A4 with Ad and lets say KQ with Kd then we have exactly needed 35% equity (88,33,KdJd,JdTd,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d,8d6d,7d6d,6d5d,5d4d,Ad8h,Ad8s,Ad8c,Ad4h,Ad4s,Ad4c,KdQh,KdQs,KdQc) Lets say that times that he limps with AQ annulles with times he traps with QQ
It really isn't easy fold or easy call and some reads or any stats could help us narrow his range (or widen him), but as is i would rather crying fold and wait for more clear spot with our expected edge (in game not sure though )