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NL100 KTo, sizng on R vs fish w/ nutstraight?

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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($104)
BB ($20)
UTG ($98.67)
UTG+1 ($76.70)
Hero ($100)
BTN ($50)

Dealt to Hero K♣ T♥

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3, fold, SB calls $2.50, fold

FLOP ($7) A♣ J♥ 3♦

SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

TURN ($15) A♣ J♥ 3♦ J♦

SB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($15) A♣ J♥ 3♦ J♦ Q♣

SB bets $7.50, Hero raises to $37.50

villain: 47/0 - 20 hands

Is this a spot where a shove might be a good option, targeting all Jx hands that most likely wont fold?

The obvious downside with this line would be that we might lose value from all aces, and from time to time get owned when he has the boat.

Thoughts?


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7 replies

defo bet big.

I really like jamming, I think he's either going to hero you or he isn't and I don't think how much you raise over about $15 more is going to effect his decision too much.

You realise as well that jamming only needs to be caalled by worse 1/3 of the time that he calls 37$ more to show the same profit.


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I wasnt clear on one point.

I think the difference between Jamming and raising to $35 is pretty slim - obviously we're a lot more likely to be called and win when we raise to $26.50 than jamming, but if we decide we want to bet BIG, then jamming needs to work about 1/3 of the time to show same profit as a smaller big raise (if that makes sense)

So it really boils down to your judgement, If i'm not sure I always just go for big.


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

i like 52


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

lilDave: makes sense.

pleno1: why just 52? :)


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

i see people making huge time bank folds alot at the moment so I don't want to give him an excuse to fold the river. I don't think I'd ever bluff jam the river and if hes good he knows this too meaning we are weighted towards a value range and thus encouraging hero folds. Also if we make it 52 we can fold to a shove and save money X% of the time.


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

Well he isn't good. He is a 48/0 fish :P

Then would that change your reasoning?


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Yeh but fish alot of the time are playing with the whole money they have in their account, leaving them $40 to be able to spin up with should be a huge consideration when we are thinking of optimal bet sizing vs fish.


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