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River caught TP

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PokerStars - $0.25/$0.50 (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

UTG: $6.56
CO: $10.66
BTN: $4.96
SB: $4.78
Hero (BB): $6.85

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 2♠ K♠

fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.50, fold, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.10, 2 players) 6♣ 9♠ 2♣
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN calls $0.25

Turn: ($2.10, 2 players) 6♥
Hero bets $0.50, BTN raises to $1.00, Hero calls $0.50

River: ($4.10, 2 players) K♣
Hero ?

This guy is loose-aggressive though his winning streak was pretty good. He definitely open-raises wider than ORC suggests and is capable of raising turn with made hands (not sure if there can be some small pockets, but TPs+ for sure). He'd cap preflop with AA&KK for sure so his calling range on the river roughly:

Board: 6♣9♠2♣ 6♥ K♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     42.42%  42.42%   0.00% { 9d9h, 9d9c, 9h9c, 6d6s, Ad9d, Ah9h, Ac9c, Kd9d, Kh9h, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qc9c, Jd9d, Jh9h, Jc9c, Td9d, Th9h, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9c8c, Tc7c, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ad6d, As6s, Kd6d, Qd6d, Qs6s, Jd6d, Js6s, Td6d, Ts6s, 9d6d, 8d6d, 8s6s, 7d6d, 7s6s, Ad9h, Ad9c, Ah9d, Ah9c, As9d, As9h, As9c, Ac9d, Ac9h, Ad6s, Ah6d, Ah6s, As6d, Ac6d, Ac6s, Kd9h, Kd9c, Kh9d, Kh9c, Kd6s, Kh6d, Kh6s, Qd9h, Qd9c, Qh9d, Qh9c, Qs9d, Qs9h, Qs9c, Qc9d, Qc9h, Jd9h, Jd9c, Jh9d, Jh9c, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Td9h, Td9c, Th9d, Th9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, Ts9c, Tc9d, Tc9h, 9d8h, 9d8s, 9d8c, 9h8d, 9h8s, 9h8c, 9c8d, 9c8h, 9c8s }
BB     57.58%  57.58%   0.00% { Ks2s }

I included here some flushes (from FDs on turn), think he can do certain moves with them.

I saw him not betting marginal hands on scary boards (99 on KQxxx 3suited) in position so I think he's capable of not betting here as well.

I think I should bet but in case of a raise... I can't say it's bluff so often (honestly say, I didn't see him pure bluffing for 30 hands) but it doesn't mean he's not capable of it. So I think I play donk/call here.


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2 replies
Dawnfall26
Joined: 30.07.2008

Hi!

Im not a big favourite of this flop raise but its certainly viable.I dont like it because on board like this you can expect decent amount of rebluffs on either flop or turn and since your hand has SD value and that there will not be that many pleasant cards for you, oponents can make your life hell. Sure it also has positive sides like that it protects better,has equity edge,...

Dont understand what you meant he could cap premiums since you just called:) (obviously fine)

As played you have to call turn and also all blank rivers,this is one of the situations which is nasty for you since even on such blank card you are not able to fold often being close to dead.

River Im checking... All the hands you want him to call a donk(which are basically 9x,TT-QQ should cbet again if he is at least somewhat decent. On the other hand he can have KK,AA,some FD rebluffs,decent amount of 6x hands...which is already about the same in terms of hands that will either call or raise you. And there are hands like Ax,Kx which raised turn for freeSD which you wont really extract anything more from...and there are for sure some other bluffs like 87 or whatever where you obviously preffer a check.
Also if you donk his raise may actually be a bluff so you dont really have an easy decition getting 1:9

So...check...and then decide whether to c/r or c/c

Equity Win Tie
CO 51.94% 51.94% 0.00% Ks2s
BU 48.06% 48.06% 0.00% 99+, 66, A9s, A6s, K9s, K6s, Q9s, Q6s, 86s, 76s, A9o, A6o, K9o, K6o, Q9o

...removed some 9x combos since he may indeed check them behind so yes c/c is better and if you do go for c/r you have to fold to 3bet as you are never ahead.


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Thanks for your effort!
I missed some action when I wrote about capping preflop :facepalm: I have some troubles when deciding what do, I mean I have a lot of arguments for one decision or another but can't choose the best of them. It's like art, thanks for your masterpiece :)


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