[Closed] NL100 - A4 - toptwo

Folding is fine here. Its hard to assign concrete ranges, but try to think about with which hands s/o is willing to go broke here.... Lets assume the first villain may have called preflop with A2s+,AKo,AQo, SCs, Pockets, some other kind of hands. On this board, bluffs are not too likely as you have hit the A very often. I'd assume he may go broke with a SC in spade, any 2 pair, any set and AQ+. Given that all players have such a range, you are flipping. However, I'd assume that you wouldn't push your 9s8s-type hand after 2 players are all-in... Hence, the chance that you are against a stronger hand increase. Lets take a look at Pokerstove:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,666,200 games 0.176 secs 32,194,318 games/sec

Board: 2d 4s As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.891% 21.82% 01.07% 1236513 60523.00 { 44, 22, AQs+, A4s, A2s, KsQs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 22.891% 21.82% 01.07% 1236513 60523.00 { 44, 22, AQs+, A4s, A2s, KsQs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 30.357% 28.47% 01.89% 1613084 107027.33 { 44, 22, AKs, A4s, A2s, KsQs, QsJs, 6s5s, AKo }
Hand 3: 23.861% 20.92% 02.94% 1185274 166742.67 { Ac4c }

You have 23.8% Equity and you are playing a big pot here with some dead money. If you call, the pot contains 175.9$, thus your share is 41.97$. You have to invest 40.4$, so it looks plus EV. However, you (and SB) have additional 40$ behind and its very likely that SB has a stronger hand as he recognizes a ton of action and still joins the pot... Thus, given that we don't make a lot of profit by calling (we also have to pay the rake...), increase our variance significantly and risk our remaining stack (as we are never able to fold), I think folding is fine.

PS: you may assume different ranges (e.g., I did not include 53), but the general process of analyzing such a spot should be clear.

I agree with Thorsten. I would change some hands in the ranges, but in total it´s pretty much the same.
I think the EV for folding or pushing is nearly +-0 EV. That´s why i tend to fold. But pushing is not realy a fault.
I would like to know what villains had. Tell us Giggl.
i guess:

Co AJ
BU: fd
SB:22

Tribun

thx,

co: 3 3
bu: K A
sb: 6 5

Interesting thats pretty much what I thought they had.

I figured that since 44/AA are very unlikey, the only hands that really crush us are 22 and 53 which SB would most likely have pushed with. Since SB simply calls there I put him on either the nut-flushdraw or a combodraw that doesnt care about more people joining the hand - and is giving itself the correct odds to call.

Although its not really pretty I think I would have pushed here following my read, knowing that SB has to call and that he is on some type of drawing hand that we are ahead of. With CO/BU mostly likey holding aces with higher kickers or being on flushdraws themselves I would be in pretty good shape.

But I also don't think folding is incorrect here- probably even a lot better than the push. Judging by the action it is not that unlikely that either BU/CO hold 22 and we are playing primarily for a side-pot - and that against a person who has a strong draw.

I would probably call here, I wouldn't put anyone on 53 though, only scary thing is the flush draw. but I would still call. considering that they have Ace's with high kickers.
well thats my opinion.

tbh you should always call when you're about to hit a boat

on a more serious note, I think I would evaluate the players's retardness level and act accordingly

turbomuck IMO. i think far too often someone has a set here, to which we're drawing almost dead against.