NL100 QJo

Firstly 40 hand hand samples are almost pointless for Cbet stats, like you say out of ten hands the fact he's folded 3 of them is almost irrelevant imo - so don't take too much from these stats.

defo bet the turn, you have $85 back and 56 in the pot i'd bet something like $30 as this bet pretty much commits him for his whole stack without us having to go all in.

As played mmmm. IDK actually the pot flop bet is really weird seems like 66 is a defo possibility from the UTG limp call I have no idea one thing is for sure though if he DOES have worse he is almost certainly calling....

Really close, I can't actually decide. I kinda wanna fold as well lol but i feel like going all in is BETTER than calling.

Also not sure I like the flop raise vs a UTG limper who pots a flop this dry, I think our range has so many hands in it better to continue with than QJo here I think scratching you head and letting it go is ftw. I just don't think he folds ever.

betting the turn after villain b/c this flop is burning money imo.
as played i think i just jam, i dont see villain playing Kx like this OTF and could be reasonable to say that villain plays A7 like this.

Regarding the stats and how villain splits his flop range: you can assume some stuff regarding villain's donking range given how he reacts to cbets:

1. 25% donkbet, fold to flop cbet 35%, fold to turn cbet 80% --> v. likely this guys donking some strong hands OTF and c/c'ing wide otf + giving up ott

2. 20% donk , fold to flop cbet 60%, fold to turn cbet 10% --> very likely this guy is donking with weak hands/bluffs and keeping his strong hands in his c/c'ing range
etc...

Originally posted by BC1989RF
betting the turn after villain b/c this flop is burning money imo.

no, raising a pot/donk is burning money. Once we've reached the turn I think we have little to no option but to try get him off his hand, and a small bet of like $24 needs to work what 1/4 of the time?

OK, so flopraise was probably not so good then. But imo I would say it is not terrible either, as I've seen fish potdonk these flops a lot these days and then fold to a raise. Also I do have some equity and can hit the nuts and stack him if he happens to actually have a hand. Besides that I can gain some information about his flop donkbetting range early on if we get to the showdown which could be very valueble as well.

But all in all, I am with you that foldign is probably best.

But as played, I don't see any real reason for betting the turn. I made a small raise just to fold out air, and I had no intention of making a huge bluff for more than half of my stack if I got called. Sure he might donkbet weak holdings here from time to time (which I actually think is fairly common for fish to do), but I like to go with the safe approach in these spot before I have gained some reads. But again, then folding is probably better as you said.

And BC1989RF thanks for the input. I actually remember watchign a video long time ago which mentioned exactly what you just said, but apparently I had forgot about it ♦

he had 96s btw and obv rivered the flush and the stacks went in ♦

Originally posted by axelphoney
he had 96s btw ♦

The OTTER!! The good old otter always wins; dont forget.

Originally posted by BC1989RF

Originally posted by axelphoney
he had 96s btw ♦

The OTTER!! The good old otter always wins; dont forget.

hahaha A+

lol ♦ ♦