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kelly criteria-(Agressive BRM )

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I read in 2+2 a interesting discussion about BRM http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/185/heads-up-sng/pooh-bah-brm-884641/
he stated that this is good way to move up fast in limits in HUsng's but can also be used in cash games.

B = ROI / variance

It basically saying if you have ROI 10% in HU sng you can play with 10BI rulle.
read the 2+2 link for deeper explanations.

So what u think about this??


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conall88
Joined: 02.01.2009

the kelly criterion is a bit too aggressive unless you are a proven winner at the stake you intend to play imo. The formula relies on you being very certain that it is a reflection of your winrate, and of course you need big sample sizes for that, which most people won't have if they are considering a new BRM anyway. The kelly criterion as you mention it still has a significant risk of ruin. I notice some people quote it at between 10-20% depending on what format you play.

half-kelly BRM is probably the way to go if you are into aggressive BRM imo.

A half-kelly means double the BI that the kelly formula recommends. so if kelly tells 13BI, playing with half kelly means playing with 26BI.

I think the best idea of all is to use a variance calculator, and then input your winrate over a reasonable sample, after deducting 2% so as to be pessimistic.


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