I recently pushed UTG w/K10o on the bubble, (5.9 adjusted BBs) and after analyzing the push with ICMIZER I concluded the play was -EV. Considering we will be in the big blind next hand is it okay to push slightly wider than ICMIZER would dictate is +EV?
Blinds:200/400 Ante:25
Hero:2735
V1:2585 13/2 over 56 hands
V2:5170 38/19 over 172 hands
V3:2310 19/7 152 hands
Hi, burgermeister!
And welcome to our site! ICM model doesn't take into account that blinds are about to hit us next hand so we loose equity. ICM also doesn't take into account game dynamics or reads. So-yes, considering that we are gonna get hit by the blinds next hand and lose more of our FE, we should be willing to take more marginal spots. Stack set up also matters. Here, we are the midstack. Not a comfortable midstack, but still- there are 2 players that are shorter and will blind out before us.
Also, the loose big stack is sitting in the SB, meaning he will often put pressure on the shortstack(which is good for us as he doesn't get walks + there is a higher chance he go busto).
Keeping this in mind, I think pushing is marginal. Probably ok as the very bottom of my offsuited Kings. But if BTN/SB/BB call a bit more hands- it becomes bad. So folding seems a bit better imo.
Also, try ICM trainer- you can download it for free from site and SnG wizard- 30 days free trial. ICMIZER might be good as well, dunno. Never worked with it. Just giving you options.
Cheers!
