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bubble fold 2nd par vs BS?

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Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $600(BB) Replayer
SB ($6,720)
Hero ($3,090)
CO ($8,110)
BTN ($2,080)

Dealt to Hero J♦ T♣

fold, fold, SB calls $300, Hero checks

FLOP ($1,200) 2♥ A♠ 9♣

SB checks, Hero checks

TURN ($1,200) 2♥ A♠ 9♣ J♥

SB bets $600, Hero folds

Spoiler

SB shows 8♣ 3♥

SB wins $1,200

his stats 31/0 ag. factor 4.5 35 hands
he is passiv, he could have an ace easily. However he has a high agr. factor, but i didnt think its reliable on 35 hands. How would you play it?


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4 replies
wiarygodny
Joined: 16.07.2009

i'd rather simply try to steal it on the flop (it's super dry so you don't really need to worry abt him calling with a worse hand which may give you some difficult decisions later - if he calls youre done with the hand).
As played im calling his turn bet and reevaluting the river (check behind; if he bets im folding unless its some weird minbet or sth).
its the bubble, we're the second shortest so we need to be really carefull, but i still don't think we have to ch/f each street in a spot like that.


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

I kinda like the check pre. This type of villains love to limp strong/monster hands together with their trash ones. He doesn't seem to be super wide either. Any SB limp stabs?

However, regardless, once checked to us- bet any flop. This one is really nice. Hard for us to rep an ace of course, but he prolly doesn't think on that level. With no meta, vs fish, just threat spots like this as a mandatory bet on the flop once checked to us. He has completed and he has checked- these 2 actions show a good portion of weakness and we will take the pot down with 1/2 pot bet very often. So you are printing money.

As played... I think I call 1/2 pot bet and evaluate river. Probably folding unimproved if he leads again.


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The reason why i didnt want to call this is that I have 4 BB left after posting, if I call his min bet or raise and get called, I will have 3 BB, and if I lose, the next hand i am hit by the SB, so I will be left with 2,5 BB.
Than if the bigstack is a fish, he is very likely to give the shortstack a walk and vuala I can call ATC on the BB next orbit
Should I be more optimistic about the bigstack stealing from the shortie?


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

No, u r right. Also, if we call, we will be left w <1ps bet left on the river and folding given all that is bad! So, on a second glance, I think folding the turn is ok, but we should never have gotten there in the first place. Our line post is bet flop-1/3-1/2 pot size. Check behind on turn and fold river if he leads and we don't hit 2 pair or trips.

As for the big stack giving the shortie walks- possible. But there are aggro fishes and passive fishes. Hard to tell when I am not in the game. But yes- fishes usually do that often.


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