plo4 Interesting Spot.

if i just count outs on turn i come up to 16 outs will make your hand stronger than AA**. It gives you about 32% chans to win and he gives you 1:2 in odds so you should fold.

Not sure about the flop play so I wonät anything about that.

Originally posted by Chriffan
if i just count outs on turn i come up to 16 outs will make your hand stronger than AA**. It gives you about 32% chans to win and he gives you 1:2 in odds so you should fold.

Not sure about the flop play so I wonät anything about that.

Hi,

I think it's more than 16 outs:

4 x 7's, 3 x Q's, 9 x :club:, 3 x 10's, 3 x J's

Board: 4♥K♣8♣ 9♠
       Equity    Wins    Ties
CO     57.76%  57.76%   0.00% { KdTdKh3h }
SB     42.24%  42.24%   0.00% { Qs8sJcTc }

Knowing my opponents hand (a set of Kings), they were all clean outs apart from the 4♣ & 9♣ (I think!?). Is 42% enough on the turn? What is the minimum kind of turn equity we're looking for for a profitable shove? I'm not trying to justify anything about my play but I'd be interested to hear some more feedback.

Thanks

Flop should have been raise or fold.

Against pocket aces you have really good equity on the flop so you should be raising this flop in the hope he might fold his hand. If however you are worried he has a stronger hand you should be folding as your pair of eights is obviously no good and your flush draw may not either.

As played on the turn the checkraise shove is bad. You are on the draw and villain is never folding for 1 Euro more. So call, this way you save money if you don't hit the river. I very much doubt villain will fold if you hit a straight or a flush with such little money left, pretty sure he always makes a crying call in this spot.

You have something like 18 outs on the turn against a set so of course you cannot fold, but I don't think that means you should be raising either.

Originally posted by Ribbo
Flop should have been raise or fold.

Against pocket aces you have really good equity on the flop so you should be raising this flop in the hope he might fold his hand. If however you are worried he has a stronger hand you should be folding as your pair of eights is obviously no good and your flush draw may not either.

As played on the turn the checkraise shove is bad. You are on the draw and villain is never folding for 1 Euro more. So call, this way you save money if you don't hit the river. I very much doubt villain will fold if you hit a straight or a flush with such little money left, pretty sure he always makes a crying call in this spot.

You have something like 18 outs on the turn against a set so of course you cannot fold, but I don't think that means you should be raising either.

Ok Ribs, so raise or fold on the flop. Funnily enough I've been taking the 'just call and leave your self £1/$1 in case you miss on the river' line quite a lot recently, so yes I'll remember that for next time in a similar situation. I just saw all of my potential outs and got a bit happy I think!

P.S What is the minimum equity we need to make a profitable shove on the turn in a situation like this? Does it work like that in PLO or is that a No Limit thing?

Thanks

To make a profitable shove on the turn, you either need to have fold equity (which you never will in this case) or you need to have a chance of winning that is greater than 50%.

What I mean by this is you should always make the play that is most profitable. In this case, calling is more profitable than raising because you save money on the river when you miss, but your opponent doesn't save money on the river when you hit (he will call not knowing if he is ahead or behind, but you can fold knowing your pair of eights is clearly no good.)

To justify calling on the turn you must have at least 33% equity (technically 35% to compensate for the rake). You can make neutral EV calls where it you can correctly put your opponent on a hand which will always lead to a +EV situation on the river.

So in summary. Let's say there is $10 in the pot, I have $15 left with a big draw on the turn (45% equity) and my opponents bets $10.

If I shove, I am betting $15 to win a pot of $40.

15/40 = 37.5%

This is the minimum equity I need to justify the play. (I have 45% so that's fine).

$40 x 0.45 = $18 (my $15 shove returns me $18 for a profit of $3 EV)

However if I call, then I am risking $10 to win a pot of $40. We say this because our opponent has $5 left and is never folding on the river no matter what hits. So now I only need 25% equity to justify calling the turn.

10/40 = 25%

$40 x 0.45 = $18 (my $10 turn call returns me $18 for a profit of $8 EV)

Excellent! Just the info I needed.

Thanks

Against range of AAxx you are 55% favorite on the flop. I would definitely raise the flop unless I had reads on his 3bet range.