[NL1k] Boat on the river facing possible larger boat

Yeah, it's pretty interesting. I don't think BB has AA or KK, he probably bets them on the flop. On the turn I'd say he has something like QQ-TT. On the river it's like wtf moment. He really can have only QQ which is 1 combo ... It's almost impossible for him to have any bluff as well. 8x is really unlikely from a tag here. This is one of the spots where You think omfg he has only 1 value combo ... I can't fold here, but he always got it ♦

Hey,

Although you don't want to focus on pre flop, I think it is a really big mistake so would like to comment, even it briefly. Squeezing here means that when we're called we're in so much trouble and have alot of reverse implied odds, as well as calling with kqs, aks, aqs, he can also flat with JJ/QQ/KK/AA basically meaning that any Qx or Jx board is going to be very ugly for us vs his range.

If you do want to 3bet vs UTG in this spot (I wouldnt as he has a strong range as raising from UTG and other gy can have nutted hands too that he didnt want to 3b vs UTG) then I'd choose some hands that at least ahd some playability and implied odds. Hands like suited aces or suited 2 gappers would be better.

I like your check on the flop to represent AK and pot control.

On the turn I think if we check any pair will cbet for protection/value so I think checking again is optimal as when we bet we will usually fold out worse (they shouldn't have worse qx at this point.

On the river we have a full house and captain zeebo told us that people don't fold full houses, potentially the BB could have JJ/1010 here although I think the main part of his range is overpairs, Qx and occasionally 8x. I don't think we get called enough by worse hands as often as we're called by better hands to make it profitable bet on the river (this is considering we dont think he ever folds Qx on the river - which according to Zeebo is true )

About calling the river/betting the river it is really really dependent on the villains stats, if bb is a huge fish then obviously betting river is best, if he is a tight reg then checking is going to be superior.