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bubble 5bb push from UTG, call w A9o BU?

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Poker Stars $13.89+$1.11 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds + t25 - 4 players

CO: t948 M = 2.37
Hero (BTN): t3480 M = 8.70
SB: t2232 M = 5.58
BB: t6840 M = 17.10

Pre Flop: (t400) Hero is BTN with A :diamond: 9 :club:
CO raises to t923 all in, Hero calls t923, 2 folds

Flop: (t2246) 4 :diamond: 7 :heart: 7 :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t2246) K :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t2246) K :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

My rough guess in this situation is that mostly we are ahead and mostly we´ll get the situation 60/40 in our favour.
My question is, is it enough to play it here? Since if we loose (either by simple call, letting BB to overcall or repushing ourselves) we will go down to something like 2500 making our stack equal to all others besides massive chipleader with 6500. (who is solid reg and I expect him to abuse it)
So could we "gamble" here or let BB himself make the call.
If he´s folding actually, short will still be short, so isn´t folding little better?


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010
Oldschool Grinder

We don't want to call pre and fold if the BB ships. I will either overpush or fold. We are putting almost 1/3 of our stack in the middle. I checked the hand with wiz and I think calling 88+ AJ+ is the loosest we can go. If not even tighter. It really depends on CO's range, but I don't expect him to be super loose here and we don't do good at all vs 30% range f.e.(which is quite loose). We are more like 50/50 vs that range rather than 60/40. So I will muck my hand.


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