Multiway, how to value the nuts..?

Hi!

I think there is value to be found in turn 3bet.

UTG obviously sits on premium and his wierd slowplay shit is AA,66,AK or just spew.AA should be discounted since its not slowplayed as often as AK on this board.His stats are very fishy so there is indeed some more combos in his range(like KQ,AQ or some wierd spews) but highest amount are AK,then AA.

BB is either on Ax,FD or Kx in any case you are doing fine.Important to note is that bad player will not let go of this range even if super heavy action unfolds

So in this regard that only 1 AA combo beats you I would 3bet turn.

As played river is interesting but you have to be aware that you are looking at AK or AA unless he is completly retarded and actually AK should really start thinking about maybe being behind so but still...

Equity Win Tie
MP3 64.07% 28.13% 35.93% AA, AKs, AKo
CO 35.93% 0.00% 35.93% AdKs
BB 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% A9s-A6s, K9s-K8s, QdTd, JdTd, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Qd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Qd7d, Jd7d, Td7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Qd6d, Jd6d, Td6d, 9d6d, 8d6d, Qd5d, Jd5d, Td5d, 9d5d, 8d5d, A7o-A3o, KTo-K8o

Your equity if he only has these hands is instantly above average due to the third freemoney giving guy.Since UTG is fishy he will also sometimes have some other hands like AQ,66,... which makes you equity even better and I like capping,vs good oponent I would just call though hope we split.

Hey, thank you for this long and complete answer..

What you have to know is that these players are very very very very bad.. well, you can see their stats but they still are worth than that.. ^^

So, what I was realy wondering is, if I raise turn, can BB realy call with a draw, for example..? I mean, if I just call, it's quite sure he will call too and so I can make him hit his draw or anything to call some bets river..

But if he decides to fold, I just have my biggest fish value on this turn, and maybe not on the river if he choses to slow down action..

What do you think about this..?

(and sorry, I'm french and I speak english so baaaad ^^ )

Hi!

Exactly because they are bad they wont fold draws there and this guy qualifies for sure. Vs thinking opostion(you wouldnt really be in this spot though) but if....then calling would make much more sense,vs this guy though Im quite sure he wont fold

I also want to 3-bet the turn. We're crushing the board here and so its pretty likely that our short stacked opponent has a draw (or top pair). Neither hand is likely to fold the turn given that he's short stacked but he will fold his busted draws.

As played the river is well played. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if this were a cooler hand, but thats not going to dissuade me from capping the river. When I first checked out the UTG players stats i was thinking "seems weak/tight" and a weak/tight guy might actually check the flop with aces, but realistically this hunch isn't a big enough factor to deviate from your decision to jam the river.

Given that sample size he may even have 66. AK is probably the most likely hand which is kinda funny when there's only 2 combinations. AA is a big chunk of his range, but I'd guess he has KQs ~5% of the time as well.

Actually, even though a huge part of UTG's range has an ace (or two) the BB is also pretty likely to have hit top pair on the turn. For this reason we can slightly discount the chances that we're beat here. He coldcalled pre, peeled a dry flop in a monster pot, and maybe binked an ace. If he does have an ace then we have the nuts.

edit: oh no, I've mixed up the player stats. the raiser is much looser than the BB so far. Ignore that part about weak/tight... but he still could easily have an ace(perhaps more likely now). Still, I would play 3-bet turn and the river is good.

Ok, thank you, nice analysis..

I have to insist that these players are bad bad bad but you're not so far from their hands.. (which are not important so I don't need to put them here now, or just if you realy want them ^^)
I was sure to have the nuts on each streets here, because they are very bad, but now I understand I should have raised this turn because as you both say, this short stack won't fold a pot this big..