Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #40 24.06.12

In my opinion:

Semi bluff turn - he is not likely to raise turn, I don't think he folds a lot of hands. I think we should bet 1/2 of the pot . and re-evaluate on the river (assuming we are yet to see the river).

As played:
Given the river card we complete our straight.

River is a clear 4bet shove (villain still has like half dollar left ♦ )

Calling/4betting river is +EV.

In the river I put villain on this range:
JJ-TT,55,AKs,AJs-ATs,KQs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,AJo-ATo,KQo,KTo,QTo,JTo

Does this range makes sense ? I exclude AA-KK because would he really just call flop and c/x turn ?

Given that range, we are favorites; 57% vs 43%

estimating there are approx 12$ in the pot, we need to call/raise about 4$ -we make around 5$ EV on avg.

have I gone too far and FAR to wrong with my estimations veriz ?

Check behind turn. We have very little fold equity and still only have a draw so our pot equity is small. So when we miss we save money. And he's aggressive on the river so he'll donk out a lot and pay us when we realise our equity.

His donk raise sucks... Because his wtsd is so low. But W$SD is low so he's capable of making this play with Ax, and non fh Tx hands so call imo - we're good enough of the time here.

Preflop and flop I completely agree.

Turn - I think if his fold to cbet on flop is so low over good sample, then it should be posible to bet the turn, because on flop he could call very ligt, with hands like A high and PPs. If he has PP, we have decent equiety, because of overcards and OESD.

Easy ship on river, he could now have catched Ax including AJ, maybe even A5, plus he might have slowplayed Tx, plus his stack is small and we have almost nuts.

Hello,

2nd barreling the turn wouldn't achieve much here cause we rarely going to have much fold equity. Therefore I'd also Check behind on the turn.

Although what I'd do on the river is that I'd just shove cause I see him having enough of Ax/Tx hands which are capable of calling us down.

Best Regards.