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PLO2 drawing not the nuts

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karlosibz
Joined: 11.04.2009

I feel like normally you would not bet a FD. I would probably fold a river bet and a big bet on the turn.

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BB): $2.13 (106.5 bb)
UTG: $1.84 (92 bb)
MP: $2.57 (128.5 bb)
CO: $2.58 (129 bb)
BTN: $2.94 (147 bb)
SB: $0.78 (39 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T 2 Q 9
UTG folds, MP calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, BTN calls $0.02, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.10) 4 J Q (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets $0.07, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.07, MP folds

Turn: ($0.24) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.11, Hero calls $0.11

River: ($0.46) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Results:

Spoiler

$0.46 pot ($0.02 rake)
Final Board: 4 J Q 8 4
Hero showed T 2 Q 9 and lost (-$0.20 net)
CO showed Q T 4 9 and won $0.44 ($0.24 net)


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2 replies

I think that in a pot with a lot of players, this is rarely a bluff on the flop. It's either a set, high flush draw or a combination of a flush and a straight draw, although I think that a set would bet full pot here.

I would just muck the hand right on the flop, there is not much point in drawing to your few outs and then having the possibility of being outdrawn by a flush on the river even when you do hit. Also, you have only 3 outs to the nuts most likely.

Now, as played, the turn is actually pretty interesting. It is strange that he bets very little. If he had a high flush, he would bet big since worse flushes will call him anyway. So perhaps this is a low flush but still wants to get some value from worse hands, it could also be a set that plans on folding if raised. It certainly looks weak, and I think calling this and evaluating on river is an option here.

I think on the river you actually have a spot where you could bluff donk full pot to represent a boat/quads, but on the other hand, would you really c/c a set on the flop? You would obviously c/r him, so if he has a brain, he will know that you can't have a boat/quads here and call your bluff. If he does have a boat himself, he will definitely bet it, so you have to fold to a river bet... and if he has a low flush, he will check it behind. Either way, you're screwed on the river IMO. It's just an ugly ugly card.

If river wasn't pairing, he would probably check behind most of his range anyway (if we're assuming that he would bet nut flush bigger on turn).

To sum up: fold flop, as played fold to a big bet on the turn or call a small bet, but you have to c/f river.


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Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

You have 3 outs to the nuts on the flop and you're out of position. Fold the flop because you are not going to get an easy decision on the turn. You have no idea if your queen is good. If it is then you're probably going to give a free card on the turn and if it isn't then you're probably going to call another bet.

So there is a lot of reverse implied odds with this hand where you pay off the other guy and when you hit, he either folds or you give him a free card.


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