Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
MP1: $7.32 (73.2 bb)
MP3: $9.70 (97 bb)
Hero (BB): $4 (40 bb)
BTN: $2.30 (23 bb) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, BU steal: 40 (15), Ft3bet: 57 (7), Hands: 307
MP2: $2.35 (23.5 bb)
CO: $1.77 (17.7 bb)
SB: $15.98 (159.8 bb) - VPIP: 51, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 1.1, Hands: 237
UTG+2: $10.56 (105.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with T
A
5 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero raises to $4 and is all-in, BTN folds
Results:
Spoiler
$0.65 pot
Hero mucked T A and won $0.65 ($0.35 net)
Hi. I wanted to calculate a defending handrange in this spot. The result is I can resteal about 60% in this spot, which seems to me like there is a mistake somewhere.
My calculation goes like this:
BU's open raise range - There is a loose player in SB, so I expect BU to steal more Ax and broadway hands: 66+,A5s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo (262 hands)
Spoiler
His 3bet AI calling range could look like this: 88+,AJs+,AQo+ (78 hands)
Spoiler
EV=FEQ*pot + (1-FEQ)*(EQ*final pot - investment)
FEQ=(262-78)/262=0,702=70,2%
pot=$0,45
final pot=(2*$2,30+$0,05)*0,95=$4,41
investment= $2,2
EV=0
0=0,702*$0,45+(1-0,702)*(EQ*$4,41 - $2,2)
0=$0,3159+$1,31418*EQ - $0,6556
$0,3397=$1,31418*EQ
EQ=25,8%
which leads into this range
Spoiler
I would expect BU to openraise looser than call 3bets looser. I think 64% to defend is too much. Am I leaking here or what 
Thanks
