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NL10 FR KQs

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JohnDoe1313
Joined: 04.01.2011

Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (MP1): $5.28 (52.8 bb)
CO: $3.50 (35 bb)
MP3: $11.46 (114.6 bb)
BTN: $9.18 (91.8 bb)
BB: $12.69 (126.9 bb)
MP2: $11.85 (118.5 bb)
SB: $10.20 (102 bb)

BB

Spoiler

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q K
Hero raises to $0.30, 5 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 8 9 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.45) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.45) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Results:

Spoiler

$2.45 pot ($0.12 rake)
Final Board: 8 9 9 3 4
Hero mucked Q K and lost (-$1.20 net)
BB showed T A and won $2.33 ($1.13 net)

This player doesn't fold to cbets a lot, so I think he check/calls broadways and Ax unimproved. He also bets a lot vs missed cbets, so can I bluffcatch here? I think he doesn't have all Ax in his range as I feel like he rather plays them when noone has the initiative.

Board: 8♦9♥9♠ 3♥ 4♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    71.40%  69.62%   1.79% { QQ-22, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A7o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o }
MP3    28.60%  26.81%   1.79% { KcQc }

Thx


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BrunoPradoBR
Joined: 13.07.2009

IMO you didn't have enough fold equity to do a CBet on the flop against the Villain.

You had:
vs PFR
Fold to Cbet = 30%

You need at least 36%

I would play check/fold flop, turn and river.


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JohnDoe1313
Joined: 04.01.2011

Thanks for your analysis. I agree that there is not much FEQ on the flop, but even this fish can exploit me if I check everytime I don't hit (which will be pretty often considering I hit this a with unpaired hand 33% of time). That's why I rather bet flop and possibly turn (less fold equity on flop = more fold equity on turn because there is still trash in his range) and/or see the river hoping I hit.


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Originally posted by BrunoPradoBR
I would play check/fold flop, turn and river.

I would play it in the same way against this Villain. Especially on the River you have to fold to the bet.


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