Flatting Raises instead of 3bet Shoving on 9man Bubble

I will be : ) Please, go ahead!

I guess the plan must be to float him a lot and maximize fold equitity on the turn where he is going to be in a very difficult position (stack). Plus with that stack he is not going to fold pre a lot broadway aces and medium-big pairs, so I like it a lot. People kinda auto-cbet when an ace flops, so that is good for us. We are keeping him in with exactly the hands we beat, plus we have position. We can afford to lose some chips postflop when he connects, instead of losing half our stack and the chip lead most of the time when he has one of those hands that are never folding given his stack. But the chip situtation must be exactly this.

Do you also like to shove a lot of flops when he cbets? Or just float and see what he does on the turn?

Might backfire if he bets big flop and turn...

What's the plan if he check-calls flop?

I don't like flatting here, not because I think it puts us in such a bad position, but because I think pushing will work very well. The raise of 20 chips more than a minimum raise doesn't indicate strength to me. If you push preflop, the small blind has the choice of calling all-in against the chip leader, or else folding and still being the clear second stack. I think letting him see the flop gives him some very comfortable decisions if we show aggression and he puts us on a wide range. So, I don't think flatting should be better than pushing.

I really think by pushing pre we are making him fold all the hands that we beat and a very small range of the hands that beat us. But then again, I'm not a SNG player so I may be wrong.

I admit I find the qustion real interesting, because it made me think. Otherwise I'd be just going: "Oh, I have an A, he is second in chips so he's not gonna call a lot, so I can easily shove here!"

Shove would be my default here always. Unless I think SB range is too polarized. With such hand postflop we just end up floating him often and as been said he might get quite stubborn postflop if he assume we are just trying to use stacks leverage.

Also if SB is good reg he really should not be inducing preflop with that many Ax hands. ICM tax is just too big.

The reason for me to call here will be with the intention of calling a lot of cbets and then taking it down on the turn. Basically villain will be put in a very tough spot with both stack set up and stack size to be able to do much postflop. Risk aversion is huge, any turn cbet will commit him and I don't think he will go for a double barrel often at all. On the other hand his range is definitely tight as he is raising with short eff. stack sizes into the chipleader on the bubble. We can make him easily fold hands like AQ/AK/99 that he was inducing with preflop as his postflop actions are very limited. With that in mind, we also have to consider whether shoving pre will be always the most EV spot the way we though it is in 2010 f.e. This is not the same game anymore. Not to mention that it could be and probably is even minus EV as his r/f range here is very narrowed.

Ax combos will be much more than pair combos, meaning that he will usually face an unmade hand postflop, but crush us if we get the chips in preflop. I agree that villain should not be inducing much pre as the ICM tax is high, but depending on reg level and BI level, I see a lot of low-mid stake regs r/c here with A9s, AJo and hands as such.

If I am villian here in the sb, I am probably only r/f'ing once. If I raise again it will be with a hand that am willing to put all my chips in with.

My initial raising range will be fairly wide depending on the table dynamics, the bb's previous behaviour, any stats I may have, any reads, and of course my perception of his idea of my table image (always assuming that he's got one of course, I play microstakes).

If I am having to flip for my tournie life, on the bubble, with 2 short stacks, and flip for the commanding chip lead, against a 3 bet from the chipleader, I will be very risk averse here. Probably something like - 99+ AJS+ AQo, AK.

If my raise gets called, I am OOP, in a raised pot, with initiative. Any part of the flop and I can happily shove the flop and expect to be ahead, have enough FE to get rid of him, or have enough outs so that I can live with it if he calls - OESD, high FD, -even 2nd pair might be good enough to shove with depending on my read of the bb.

Just thought I would try another side to this theme by reflecting on the sb and what is going on for him.

Thanks for the comments/feedback.

Circoflax, yes the plan would be to float him a lot on the flop, and then since few players would barrel off beyond the flop given the stack dynamic, look to take it away frequently on the turn when I've missed.

Pzhon, I definitely agree that shoving is the solid default play here and will very likely be profitable. But if we flat, I think we can still force him into some fairly uncomfortable decisions by floating often. What does he do at the turn unless he's connected strongly, when a 2nd barrel will commit him to the hand at a point when he's 2nd CL?

Ghaleon, good points.

Kurrkabin, I agree that his range is likely narrower here than it would be in similar situations without the current stack dynamic, and that will affect the profitabilities of shoving or calling. I think his calling range though will still be narrow enough that shoving will be decently profitable, but agreed that against some regs who make incorrect calls in spots like that it may not be.

Fagin, I don't think Villain can easily overbet shove many flops, but I agree that the factors you list are important to how he will likely play.