bu ATh

Hello Imimba1,

Depends a lot on the opponent of course and how often we expect him to be CBetting and 3barrel bluffing in those spots. Can be called down, can be folded, everything here is possible. That he opens 56% hands from CO is clearly about the sample size which means should even ignore that stat.

Best Regards.

Originally posted by veriz
Hello Imimba1,

Depends a lot on the opponent of course and how often we expect him to be CBetting and 3barrel bluffing in those spots. Can be called down, can be folded, everything here is possible. That he opens 56% hands from CO is clearly about the sample size which means should even ignore that stat.

Best Regards.

Well, it probably means he opens wide from there.
On the river, I see myself behind. I mean, would something 3nd barrel which doesnt beat a pair of tens? He had K:spade :6 :spade:. I dunno, whether he would have 3ndbarrel if he misses...
I dont know, that whether this is just bad luck. Or as you have said, I dont have to think about this too much, I cant do a mistake by calling.

Originally posted by Imimba1

Originally posted by veriz
Hello Imimba1,

Depends a lot on the opponent of course and how often we expect him to be CBetting and 3barrel bluffing in those spots. Can be called down, can be folded, everything here is possible. That he opens 56% hands from CO is clearly about the sample size which means should even ignore that stat.

Best Regards.

Well, it probably means he opens wide from there.
On the river, I see myself behind. I mean, would something 3nd barrel which doesnt beat a pair of tens? He had K:spade :6 :spade:. I dunno, whether he would have 3ndbarrel if he misses...
I dont know, that whether this is just bad luck. Or as you have said, I dont have to think about this too much, I cant do a mistake by calling.

The main mistake you are doing here is that you are putting to much effort into stats, though you have a very small sample. Which means if you concentrate on that for such a small sample it means you have a leak in your game cause clearly using the stats wrong.

Hi!

What about raising the CB as a bluff? Let`s assume, that villain`s c-betting such a board at least 80% of the time.

He would continue only 24% of the time - with straight, sets, over-pairs, top pairs.

FE: risk/pot+risk
0.75/0.62+0.75 = 0.75/1.37 = 55%

So, he needs to fold more than 55% of the time and we`re gaining profit.

Also, we got reasonable equity, if he calls. We can always choose to barrel any heart on the turn.
I think, we don`t really need to represent much on the flop to make this play +EV.

Originally posted by dienaszaglis
Hi!

What about raising the CB as a bluff? Let`s assume, that villain`s c-betting such a board at least 80% of the time.

He would continue only 24% of the time - with straight, sets, over-pairs, top pairs.

FE: risk/pot+risk
0.75/0.62+0.75 = 0.75/1.37 = 55%

So, he needs to fold more than 55% of the time and we`re gaining profit.

Also, we got reasonable equity, if he calls. We can always choose to barrel any heart on the turn.
I think, we don`t really need to represent much on the flop to make this play +EV.

How do you get 24%?! You don't even know him so how can you give so correct range to him? Not really possible. Therefore can't see why you would calculate those things here.

Whilst we might even be ahead with our Ace high plus have overcards + backdoors perfect spot to float vs him as well.

I assigned villains range in Flopzilla and elected hands he would continue with. Of course it`s not exactly 24% and he might not open this wide.

However, floating looks better but, I think, bluff-raising also is +EV.

As I said, I don't need to know where you get the 24%. I know those programs myself as well. Rather what I wanted to point out is that you can't be sure what kind of hands he is opening with such a sample size. So that's just assumptions.

There is nothing wrong with raising but if you are against a reasonable opponent he will understand that you can't represent that much. So raising becomes rather not that profitable.

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