tight fold with set

I am utterly unqualified to say anything. But I will anyway.

I think that a dangerous player is capable of making this maneuver as a bluff as well as with nuts. If this is the case, then he must perceive you as capable of folding, say, two pair (or even a set) here. The A on the river isn't exactly a blank if you know what i mean. If he is that type of player, the usual ranges may go out of the window when you both are deep. He could have anything the board allows him to represent giving him nice bluffing spots.

Again, if the opponent is very good, then the bet size (essentially pot), especially on the river, puts you in this very tough spot. You are 200BB+ deep. Sets are rare, but are they 200 BB hands? Bet-sizing theory usually calls for pretty big flop bets, and proportionally smaller turn bets with a made hand. In retrospect, had you bet, say, half the pot on the river, decisions would have been easier. Villain might have aborted a bluff too. Are you betting pot when you are three-barreling with air?

Then again, if he is rather solid, not bluff-raising the river, I can't see much that you beat, so that the fold can't be horrible.

/Johan =

Originally posted by mbml
It seems somewhat possible that he could have a higher set himself (JJ)

I can't say I'm super-qualified to answer, but don't you think most villains would raise you on the flop with the possibility of flush & straight draws on this board?

why such a big bet on the river?
even KQ cant call a bet like that and i dunt think theres any AK in his range

i'd just bet small or check call to induce some basted draw

There is one problem on this forum, you depend too much on stats thinking they give us all the infomation we need. Actually they tell us practicly nothing.

What we have to know is:

1) Is he capable a hand into a bluff ?
2) can he value bet light in this spot ?
3) Is it the first time he overbets ?
4) Did you feel he was frustrated before ?

Actually we needed just one interesting stat: his River AF.

From what you said, as you didnt mention anything that i said in my "what we need to know" i guess you think you answear this question by 1) no 2) no 3) yes 4) no

If thats right its a good fold because you rep minimum 2 pairs or at least a good Ace

Problem is, there isnt many set in his range, if this is a standard 1/2 reg he wont have KK / JJ / AA. He would 3bet or raise flop. He can luck out 77 on the turn.

He reps 3 things

1) QT
2) 77 (depending if you see him raise the turn when he hits hits nuts or not and if its your normal 3 barrel size on the river and how usualit is for you to 3 barrle
3) AJ valuebeted light

Next post please 2 things

1) profile of the vilain (not only his stats)
2) how does the vilain perceive yourself

Edit: oh my bad its utg vs co i though it was an HU match, tho most of what i said is still true, its possible he could have JJ/AK depending on his gameplay

Looks like a good fold. The bluffs he could have are pretty much QQ and maaaaybe one combo of TT. He probably has only QTs for value but maybe he doesn't think you're capable of folding a set and has AA/KK(/JJ) as well.

Originally posted by ttjjboy
why such a big bet on the river?
even KQ cant call a bet like that and i dunt think theres any AK in his range

i'd just bet small or check call to induce some basted draw

We are well representing here busted FD's, so we can make a bet that big and induce our opponent to hero-call ♦

Sure. But that is the exception, not the rule. Small bets are more often called than big ones. Only the ideal opponent sees bluffs in big bets and value in small bets.

/Johan =

@spaznRNMD Are you f***ing insane? He reps AJ with this sizing? Wtf is he expecting a call from? His repping the nuts and the nuts alone. He either has the nuts or his bluffing.

Also his 3bet is 3% so he pretty much always flats QQ,AK since his never getting it in with worse and he likely slowplays AA and KK some of the time as well since his 3bet are going to get a lot of respect, especially in this positions.

I don't really like the river sizing. There's like no air in our range after opening from UTG. So many of our FD combos now have a pair so we need exactly 67-9Ts which is only 4 FD combos that have no pair at this point.

As for the river shove i actually think its a turbo fold against this player type. Its not the question of weather he is capable of risking 2 full stacks here as a bluff with blockers but its a question if his capable of doing it 40% of the time. A lot of players just don't have it in them to make a huge overbet bluff.

Against a really good aggressive reg i think you have to call. Lets look at some math.

Lets say our hero takes this line with the following range, AK,AJ,AA,KK,JJ,55 for value and 67-T9dd, JTs and QJs as a bluff then our hero is bet/folding the river with 43combos and bet/calling only 2combos of QTs which means that hero folds over 95% of the time.

To put this in $$ value if this scenario happens 21 times his going to win 171$ that are currently in the pot 20 times(+3420) and one time his going to lose -391 that his risking which means his going to make 3029/21=144$ every time he does this bluff.

This is assuming villain has QQ or TT blocker and that our hero only opens QTs UTG and folds QTo(i think thats pretty standard for UTG range, most regs fold QTo utg)

Now lets have a look in a case where villain doesn't have blockers. Then our hero is folding 43 handcombos and calling 4hc. Meaning he folds 1 out of 11 times(still 90%). To put this in $$ value again then our villain wins 171 on 10 occasions and loses his 391 once meaning 1710-391=1319/11=119$. Thats 119$ he makes everytime he does this bluff. Thats 60bb. How many spots do you find in poker where you can make 60bb on a single hand.

And thats assuming a very tight river betting range from our hero. If we add a few more bluffs and a few more value hands(KJs,A5s,AQ some more busted FD combos) then hero is calling even less often making it even a more profitable bluff.

As you can see this is a super profitable spot for the villain to bluff if hero is only going to call with the nuts.

So to conclude if your playing against a really good reg that is capable of running big bluffs and knows how profitable it is to bluff in this spot then i think you have to call with any set since otherwise your folding at least 90% of the time.

Given that this guy is 17/11 and you feel he isn't a bluffy type then you can easily fold, especially if he shoved really fast(meaning he didn't have time to think about how often you'll be folding and how profitable it is to run a big bluff in this spot or thought about a different betsizing) so he probably has the nuts every time.

Originally posted by MatejM47
@spaznRNMD Are you f***ing insane? He reps AJ with this sizing? Wtf is he expecting a call from? His repping the nuts and the nuts alone. He either has the nuts or his bluffing.

Guess your kinda tilting mate when reading such ''in depth' analysis

Originally posted by Sikac

Originally posted by MatejM47
@spaznRNMD Are you f***ing insane? He reps AJ with this sizing? Wtf is he expecting a call from? His repping the nuts and the nuts alone. He either has the nuts or his bluffing.

Guess your kinda tilting mate when reading such ''in depth' analysis

Well his post was just super annoying and i was super hungover Him telling him to post the following is just retarded.

Originally posted by spaznRNMD
What we have to know is:

1) Is he capable a hand into a bluff ?
2) can he value bet light in this spot ?
3) Is it the first time he overbets ?
4) Did you feel he was frustrated before ?

Actually we needed just one interesting stat: his River AF.

From what you said, as you didnt mention anything that i said in my "what we need to know" i guess you think you answear this question by 1) no 2) no 3) yes 4) no

Well mbml did post all that. He has 1k hands on the villian meaning he has no sample size on the river. Villain faced this situation on about 3 times. If he calls 6% preflop thats 60 hands. Out of those his only IP 30 hands. From those he folds the flop about 50% of the time and turn 50% of the time getting on the river only 7 times. And since average tripple barrel is about 40% he has only faced a tripple barrel 3 times.

Out of those he was 200bb deep only once. So leaving you with a sample size of this spot of 1 then his river overbet is 100%.

PPL just relay on their huds way to often in spots where it takes 20k hands to get a semi-decent sample size.

O yeah and the river AF isn't the most interesting stat because its calculated in a stupid way(bets/calls) meaning if your river AF is 1% and your facing a river bet and decide to call your AF is going to go down to 0.5% while if you fold your AF is going to stay 1% meaning if someone folds more he automatically gets higher AF.

Interesting stats is his river raise and bet river% but again, you need a massive sample size for that.

I like a little bit smaller bet OTR. He could fold even AJ to pot bet. As played, I'm folding. Without any reads my first assumption is he's bad because of 17/11 stats. These players usually don't bluff this way.

....you should check call river, but here its srceaming KJ AJ is so AJ 99%, i m check calling that river just because you make yourself fold there with a 3rd barrel...

Originally posted by Agiz19
....you should check call river, but here its srceaming KJ AJ is so AJ 99%, i m check calling that river just because you make yourself fold there with a 3rd barrel...

What are you trying to say?

/Johan =

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Agiz19
....you should check call river, but here its srceaming KJ AJ is so AJ 99%, i m check calling that river just because you make yourself fold there with a 3rd barrel...

What are you trying to say?

/Johan =
i think it's something like

- check/call just because
- as played villain has like KJ AJ but AJ 99%
- we also c/c because we don't want to fold so that way we guarantee a showdown!!1

don't flame me, i'm just trying to translate

Ok, that makes some sense. I still stick to what I said in my first (the second post) post. [Self promotion ♦, but MatejM47 seems to support that view with hard number crunching.].

Not value betting at all for the reason of fear of a raise only seems a bit wimpish though. Proper bet sizing takes care of this matter. Sklansky's nowadays highly unfashionable book "No Limit Hold'em - Theory and Practice" is a very good read regarding these points.

/Johan =

Originally posted by Tomaloc

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Agiz19
....you should check call river, but here its srceaming KJ AJ is so AJ 99%, i m check calling that river just because you make yourself fold there with a 3rd barrel...

What are you trying to say?

/Johan =
i think it's something like

- check/call just because
- as played villain has like KJ AJ but AJ 99%
- we also c/c because we don't want to fold so that way we guarantee a showdown!!1

don't flame me, i'm just trying to translate

something like that ♠_cool:

It was a super solid tight fold,

yes villains HUD stat tell u hes tight but is he tight bad or tight good ?

IMO you should have called him bcoz he would fire same river raise with ak, but pot lots of money and u have set , he either has ak, q10, or other set and i dont think so..

What are the odds of set over set?He didnt most of the time simply because set over set situation on the flop happens like 1 in 100 times when there are 2 pocket pairs pre flop.As it progresses to the river the odds of that happening improve to 1:20.
The hands opponent might have had in that situation-AA-unlike would 3 bet pre, AK-unlike same thing, 10Q-unlike, he is tight, bluff
I would have called.I really dont think he would just flat with jacks pre flop, not to even mention how unlike would set vs set on flop be.(1:100)The only hand I would be really afraid of would be 77.Quick raise commonly indicates bluff or hand he is unsure about, but I am not sure if this is also the case on the stakes so high.The bluff is also more likely if you were running over that opponent in the preceeding play.

When the really big bets come in from a good opponent, then that big bet is the single most important clue to what your opponent is doing. If 72 makes a good hand, then you need to consider the possibility that he holds just 72.

What I'm trying to say is that the interpretation of earlier actions lose reliability when he big bet comes. He is either bluffing, or he is not bluffing. A value raise that big with anything but the nuts seems, while still being possible, like a waste of value on the villains part. If you want to put him on a hand if he is bluffing, then your best bet would be QQ, since it blocks the nuts.

/Johan =