Nl 10 Jj

Hello,

Interesting spot and a lot of players struggle here.

First of all, I think that we need to figure out the relative strength of our hand according to the board texture and the opponent type and figure out how to play the hand.

So here we have a opponent that looks fishy. What is his fold to cbet and bet IP?
Also, our hand is less likely to get paid on three streets on that board so I think that the maximum value we can extract here is two streets.

So what are the possible scenarios on the flop:
1. We check
- check/folding is too weak here and even if we do cbet with the intention to c/f the turn it would show profit on this practicular board, so I think check/folding is out of question.
- check/call - rather good option against aggressive opponents that like to bluff a lot.
I don't really like it though because we can't really call three streets here, we give up the initiative and making our play on the later streets way more difficult.
- check/raise - this of course won't be for value, so we are turning our hand into a bluff.
2. We bet - I do like this most, because as I said before, betting will immediately show profit on this board, also will have easier decision on the later streets, and also could get called by worse hands such as pocket pair and sometimes even floats.
Of course if he raises we are folding.

On the turn the decision between betting and check/folding is close because I don't think he would bet 88 if we check, and also I do not expect a lot of floats since people usually play straight forward on this types of boards.
Considering that he looks fishier and has a little higher WTSD I think that we could probably make a second bet, but I would probably bet something like $0.95-$1 to invite the pocket pairs to call.

On the river I really don't like your bet. 88 now beats us, I don't think 33-66 are calling, and we are mainly betting against TT-99, and even if they call all the time it's still not going to show profit since the hands that beat us are more.

What do you think about it? Do you have anything to add or ask?

Best,
Plamen

Great analysis,

Yes I agree with your thoughts. I think I went on auto pilot a bit regarding bet sizing.

Also if I bet the turn I think villain will check back the river quite often so we get to showdown with some value.