nl2 hero Aj

Based on the flop/turn lines villain can have his flop floats (a bit rare because his OOP) and his missed draws. He can also have Qx and PPs (pps usually don't bet the river).

Considering we have the Ad he has less potential bluffs in his range since all NFD are missing so the call becomes even thinner.

On the river we get about 29% pot odds so let's look at a sample range that he can get there with and bet:

77,22,AQs,KQs,Q9s+,KdJd,KdTd,JdTd,Kd9d,Jd9d,Td9d,Kd8d,Jd8d,Td8d,9d8d,7d5d,6d5d,6d4d,5d4d,AQo,KQo,QTo+

Against this range (all betting the river) we would only have 17% so clearly not a call. However villain doesn't always valuebet the river with hands like Qx. So let's take some weaker Qx out and maybe a few bluff draws.

77,22,AQs,KQs,QJs,KdJd,KdTd,JdTd,Kd9d,Jd9d,Td9d,Kd8d,Jd8d,Td8d,9d8d,7d5d,6d5d,AQo,KQo,QJo

Against which we have 25%.

So we can see that even now it's pretty far from the 29% pot odds. If villain can bet smaller pairs as well we are in bet trouble so we should just fold :).

So do you think he is capable to bet with a FD on river as a bluff ?
ty

Yeah of course he is, that happen quite often. But folding here seems like only option.

What about that line.. 2nd barrel to make him call with his FD(if he is capable to do so) and then check behind river. Of course with missed draws he won't bet and we are maybe ahead with check behind plus we generate quite good fold equity vs maybe FD and lower PPs. I think that should be profitable line that works quite often.

Or not?