NL20 SH – KK fold preflop?

07.07.2008, 10:51 0

Known players:
[tg]Hero$22,23:///////;SB$20,00:///////;CO$28,34:///////;BU$5,49:///////;MP3$20,51:///////;[/tg]
MP3 had solid stats with about 10 PFR.

0,1/0,2 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.55 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with K♣, K♦
MP3 raises to $0,80, CO folds, BU calls $0,80, SB calls $0,70, Hero raises to $4,00, MP3 raises to $12,00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $22,23 (All-In), MP3 raises to $20,51 (All-In).

I heard a lot of time and read it in book and here in the forums that you shouldn't fold KK preflop, no matter what.
I have some doubts about it now, and i am curious on your opinion.
This hand was the third time i knew that my opponent had very likely Aces and i thought i should fold, but i didn't, because of that 'rule'.
I know that i should now remember the occasions when i thought he had Aces and he actually didn't, but of course i can't remember to those

But if we look at this specific hand i think the equity calculation shows that folding is a reasonable option here:

Villain is a tight player, he open raises from middle position, got 2 callers and a big 3bet from the big blind, and he 4bets.
I think with AK, the size of his 4bet is questionable, because if i call, he can't fold with only 1/3 pot money left even if no Ace or King comes on the flop. So a call in position or a push would be a better option for him with AK.
Even if we assume he makes this paly half the time with AK's, than his range can be something like:
AA,KK, AK(50% of time)

Wins Ties Equity
34.81% 4.63% 39.44% ( KK )
55.93% 4.63% 60.56% ( AA,AK(50),KK )

winning odds: 40 : 60 = 1.5
pot odds: 17.5 : 26.1 = 1.5

So with that range, folding could be ok here, making a lower variance play.

With tighter range, which i felt he had in that situation, folding might be better.

What do you think?

4 replies

cindy1985

Joined: 13.11.2007

Posts: 353

07.07.2008, 16:03 0

I know people feel that position is not that important in reraised pot. However I would 3bet more because we will be oop the rest of the hand. I would bet 5$ PF.

I would also push. He might very well think you are squeezing and his 4bet could be a bluff, so his range might be wider than you think.

swissmoumout

Joined: 24.02.2007

Posts: 2,976

07.07.2008, 16:51 0

Hi Kesgab,

Never fold KK preflop! Especially not in 5-handed play. First of all, the odds of getting KK vs AA with 4 opponents is roughly 55:1, so you're very unlikely to be against AA.
Second, I think you can also include QQ in his range, since he'll push with it from time to time, if not always. So you'll find you have good enough odds to push all-in.
And don't worry about those coolers, they'll happen from time to time, sometimes many times in a row, but you'll find yourself winning a lot with KK in the long run. So even though it might seem obvious that they have AA, just push, you might be surprised to see a much worse hand than expected
I actually also thought seriously about folding KK preflop versus tight players when I was beginning, but over a large sample I can assure you it's profitable even against nits

_Anonymous_

08.07.2008, 10:23 0

Hi Swissmoumout,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and experience about this topic. It is really helpful and comforting to hear that you had the same thoughts but you found it profitable to always push KK. I think i won't worry any more about this.

Hi Cindy1985,

I agree my 3bet could be seen as a squeeze, although on this limit i think it's not a common move, that's why i didn't take it into account (maybe wrongly :)).
Thanks for the reply!

_Anonymous_

09.07.2008, 07:00 0

Like one good player said folding KK pf can be small or very big mistake.
Basically it all comes to the game dynamics: I 3-bet/4-bet so much that even against nits would push against me AQs.
And against 10pfr I´m getting it all-in.

[Closed] NL20 SH - KK fold preflop?