NL50sh - AQ ..

Hi,

Is UTG some fish? I think it's fine just to squeeze and take the pot down, and we don't mind getting called by UTG.

Flop: We should bet still, I think he can have some AQ/AJs/KQs/JTs combos.
Remember that when we bet halfpot, we need 33% fold equity.

Here's some homework for you: Count the combos for his entire range, including mid pairs, and the stronger broadways. Then see if we can have at least 33% fold equity.

I don't expect to get raised off this hand anyway, so I think we could still improve on later streets when we hit our ace or jack.

You forget that he might still float the flop with those hands ;).

He might but he may not

Originally posted by mbml
He might but he may not

haha :P. Nice evaluation

Can u eleborate? I mean, why would he even flat TJs and KQ etc vs mijn sqz vs utg?

I cannot answer those questions if u dont provide fold to 3b stats

Originally posted by mbml
I cannot answer those questions if u dont provide fold to 3b stats

As you see, the sample is small so I can't provide them.

It's just about giving a default range vs multitabler reg. I guess he should be pretty competent and realize that calling KJs even isn't great

Perhaps,

but we don't need him to fold AQ or AJ always. Of course if you were really sure he only has AQ and pocketpairs then c/f flop is going to be the best play by far. We are not too sure so I think betting Flop is fine. Even if he calls Flop, we have some potential to improve or even have some nice bluff cards (like the King).

I think when I add all these various factors up, betting may be slightly better.

Only problem that I see is that this is a board we should always fire multiple streets on.

Originally posted by Saren113
Only problem that I see is that this is a board we should always fire multiple streets on.

That's mblm's point. We don't have to do this here because we are squeezing vs utg so our range should be stronger. Villain doesnt seem loose either so betting ones is probably OK. It's probably fire 1 or fire 3 imo

Originally posted by Farmarchist

Originally posted by Saren113
Only problem that I see is that this is a board we should always fire multiple streets on.

That's mblm's point. We don't have to do this here because we are squeezing vs utg so our range should be stronger. Villain doesnt seem loose either so betting ones is probably OK. It's probably fire 1 or fire 3 imo

Originally posted by Farmarchist

Originally posted by Saren113
Only problem that I see is that this is a board we should always fire multiple streets on.

That's mblm's point. We don't have to do this here because we are squeezing vs utg so our range should be stronger. Villain doesnt seem loose either so betting ones is probably OK. It's probably fire 1 or fire 3 imo

COs range can't be too strong after calling both the initial raiser and our 3-bet.

It's usually a hand that's not quite good enough to 3-bet (like PPs, AJs, AQ, KQs, maybe AKo) but also a hand that he usually defends versus 3-bets.

As played, I'd bet the flop because, without history, and given how the action went we can expect him to fold the flop with his overcards more often than not. And since the turn is another low card a double barrel usually doesn't fold his PPs.