NL25 SH - AJs: with monkey in the hand

Hey,

I think you should lead or check/fold on flop.

Leading works as a reasonable bluff with equity and usually helps you realize your equity as well. On 4 to a straight you don't have implied odds or a disguised hand to check/call with pot odds + implied odds. That's why if you check it is to check/fold. When you lead though, you still have equity and you have good FE. Your opponents will usually just fold AK, Tx, 9x and lower pairs. This doesn't always happen of course, so you have to pay attention to CO since he is the one with a strong range and short stack.

MP is bound to have many bad hands preflop so against him you have the required folding equity, while if you get raised it's a very easy fold. The safe play is fold flop when you got into this spot.

That said, I would like to comment on preflop as well. I believe calling here is a very big mistake. What's CO's 3bet? What are his postflop tendencies? In 14k hands you can get to know his game better than himself! When you are OOP with such a weak ace facing a 3bet I think folding is the better play. Not only is CO likely to play correctly against you but MP is still left to act and can 4bet. You never have a hand that can face a 4bet when you flat here or simply aren't perceived to have one.

But the fact that MP is still in the pot is the exact reason Hero entered this pot, we want to see a flop with that fish. Are we thinking backwards?

Originally posted by double2
But the fact that MP is still in the pot is the exact reason Hero entered this pot, we want to see a flop with that fish. Are we thinking backwards?

We need to win the money back from the fish that we lose vs CO while being OOP with a badly dominated hand. IP it's a different story, without position how can we make money from any of the 2 players? Our decisions won't be correct as often, our control over the pot is almost nonexistant.

I didnt post the stats we need, because Co its 3betting. He 3bets 10%.

The donkey have 13% fold vs 3bet with 79% call vs 3bet, 5.4% 4bet range, so its very likely that he will call and we will dominate him very very often, and i dont think he will be able to fold second pair pos-flop. The reg knows this too, so he can very well 3bet for value hands that are worst than mine, he 3bets wide so i dont think his range its static as some nits.

When i hit and i have to call when he cbets (i have to take a decision before knowing if the donkey will come along which sucks a bit) i know that im more often behind than ahead against him, but he is MSS and the pot will be big so i think with the money the donkey will put after compensate the fact that im behind the MSS. And the MSS will never cbet bluff with a and worst than mine.

Is that 10% specifically from CO? How much does he 3bet from CO?

MSS players attack wide ranges so they 3bet like 20% from the blinds against very loose BU and SB openers. That boosts their total 3bet a lot. His range here could be something like 88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQ (that's a reasonable wide value 3betting range imo) so you are still not doing well. It's a 7.2% range and you are 42% underdog against him. If you add MP into the equation with free cards, your equity 3way drops even more. You are also OOP.

In the best case scenario when he 3bets 10% (for value like you said, so depolarized range) you are 50% against him alone and OOP against 2 players with a capped range. Are you sure you can make up for so many disadvantages with postflop play?

5.4% CO, but MP its a very special player, the range will be much wider.
I would 3bet something like:
88+,A8s+,KJs+,A9o+,KJo+
in his position.

       Equity  Vencer  Empate
MP2    48.50%  43.80%   4.70% { 88+, A8s+, KJs+, A9o+, KJo+ }
MP3    51.50%  46.80%   4.70% { AsJs }

Are you sure you can make up for so many disadvantages with postflop play?

I dont know, thats why i posted

Hehe!

If we expand from the 5.4% I think the 7.5%-ish one is a reasonable assumption so you are behind.

Folding preflop is the better play here. I actually think cold calling 3bets OOP is just about never a winning play. It can be if you flat all your premiums and just a few weaker hands that do well against a wide 3betting range like AQ, JJ, maaaaaybe AJs but that would be the dead bottom of my range quite likely and that's when I have QQ+, AK as well, meaning my opponents will misread me as weaker than I actually am.