[Closed] NL50 FR: bottom set on drawy board

GL mate.

u can always call his c\rs and evaluate river, don't forget that u have position.if he is holding AJ than u where on great shape on turn, but his c\rs seems like he might holding KQ.therefor checking seems nice, and because the river paired u don't have to be scared of that any more.i can't really see how u could possibly let go on that river.

I would like to hear from other members and coaches what they think about this board and cbetting it. Its pretty likely that board hit your opponent, but on the other hand it hits your range hard. If villain has like KQ, do you think he would fold it to cbet here? should he? I always get confused in spots like this. If flop is K49 then i know its ok to cbet, but flops like this are tough for me

grimzor:

Yep you are right, the best option on this flop could have been the check behind, and I usually go for this when I hold poket pair Heads Up in position.

In this particular case Villain was folding 100% of CBets, so I settle in favor of a CBet, but it is still arguable that a check behind would be more EV+

shlooqy:

thx mate, and I agree, it would have been hard to let it go. But the fact that was bothering me is that I instantly raised him allin without thinking at what hand he could possibly hold... that's my biggest mistake, and it doesnt appear in the history

Still, if I had switch on check/call mode, I would probably have lost less, on top of that on the river I would have feared AJ and would have probably fold to his shove...

Hi Cindy,

- two small of a CBet

around 2/3 pot is an ideal size for a continuation bet - but make sure to make the same bet sizes with bluffs and strong hands so as not to be readable - a lot of players bet 2/3 pot on dry boards, 3/4 on drawy boards (regardless of their own hand), you might want to try this.

Anyway, the turn play is fine. You have a set and although BB showed a lot of strength, he is unlikely to have a higher set; the board is AKJ, yet he didn't 3-bet preflop (he would with AA, KK and JJ)
So, if we remove higher sets from his range, we are left with something like QT, AJ, KJ. We can also remove AK, as he'll also 3-bet this (almost) everytime preflop.

Here's your equity against that range:

Board:         Ah Kc Js 4s 
               Equity    Win       Tie       Loss      Hand
Player 1:      41.176 %  41.176 %  0.000 %   58.824 %  AJs, KJs, QTs, AJo, KJo, QTo
Player 2:      58.824 %  58.824 %  0.000 %   41.176 %  4d4c
----------------------------------------

As you can see, you have decent equity, and on top of that there is a lot of money in the pot - so it's an easy push.

In this particular case, you are ahead no matter what - if you add AK to his range, your equity improves to 65%; if you give him AA, KK, JJ (very unlikely however), you are still ahead of his range with 54.2% equity.

So in short, nice hand.

And don't worry about moving down, it happens to everyone (well, everyone smart enough to follow BRM). Continue posting hands and working on your game and you'll be back up in no time.
In the meantime, good luck at NL25

I guess you are right. I had this thought that I played it too agressively, I think it comes together with the downswing, I want to protect more my stack and then potentially lose value...

Btw villain had AA (surprises me!!), and I'm back in NL50 (thx to a good run in sitngos :))