400nl inducing then doubting

bump

Originally posted by pleno1
Hey,

Hand played online.

We are playing 4 handed now, were previously 3 handed for a long time. My image is probably weird, I'm 3x'n every button which nobody does in 2013 and villain likely thinks I'm a fish. He has taken some big sizings previously. He is betting like 4/5's usually

I open Ts 6s in the cut off to 12, villain on the button calls.

Flop ($30) is Td Th 8d

I bet 12, he calls.

Turn ($54) is Aspades

I bet 24, he calls

River is ($100) Kd

10d 10h 8d, As, Kd

I bet $32, he goes all in for $380 total effective

When I bet small on the flop it was always to bet small on turn/river and try and induce vs somebody who my initial impression was pretty aggro and could turn a lot into a bluff and could have a bunch of floats.

When he goes all in vs raising to like $148 or something how do you think his range changes both for value/bluffs.

I was v v surprised about his river sizing, so I went from bet/snap to bet/doubt.

i don't think that sizing is ever a bluff there , you even said that your image was fishy , why would he risk it against an unknown ''fish'' .

Becasue the. 'fish' has made a weak bet and te board has ran out scary for the fish even if he has a 10.

with the given reads, he probably has it pretty much. if you are deemed aggro fishy, calling with such great odds and then jamming when hit is probably just what he did. the range he floats would contain alot of Ahi, and i'm not sure if he would really turn a made hand into a bluff vs a "fish"

Well, first of all I think we can confidently discard flushes from his value range. I don't see him shoving even with the nut flush.

So his value range is limited to fullhouses, some of which we can also discard because he would raise at least some of them on earlier streets. E.g. he might raise 88 on the turn. So his value range is very limited imo.

I think my decision depends on whether I think this particular reg is ballsy or not. This is a good spot to bluff because your range looks very weak and capped! However, some regs just don't have it in them to bluff in this spot. IF there's anything about the reg that suggests that he is capable of pulling big bluffs, i call. If he showed himself as nitty, i fold. If there's no more info, I assume he is a ballsy reg and call - this is NL400 after all.

Have you considered check/calling the river? If you have, then how do you think it is better or worse then making a blocker bet?

Originally posted by Itsnevereasy
Have you considered check/calling the river? If you have, then how do you think it is better or worse then making a blocker bet?

I think betting to induce (my plan was to have this river sizing on every run out and induce floats on this flop) is way better than checking as we get value from ax that doesn't bet and we get him to raise to 180-230ish a lot of the time.

I just didn't expect the shove. But if i bet to induce I guess we should call.

We should call there IMO. I think he's like always bluffing there if he thinks u're a fish. Can't see doing it for value from any reg against a fish. Your hand looks like Ax at best ( from a fish ) and I doubt he's value raising anything with that sizing against such a weak range. Maybe it's a little bit site dependent, fish play differently on many sites, but I doubt this line looks strong on any. Also I think we can easily discount at least half of his FH combos because he's raising AT,KT earlier, so it leaves him with 4 total combos of T8s and 88.

i think you are perceived to have Ax here a lot but what are you trying to induce from?

i think betting bigger on all streets is much better with this run out. you really have to be inducing a lot because he has plenty legit value raises

Hi I was just wondering cause nobody mentioned QJ is it impossible for him to have that hand? Maybe he puts you on exactly a ten or expects you to call of weak with an Ace or something which he beats with QJ?

Edit

Hmm I didnt see the third diamond completing a potential flush aswell, so forget about what I said ^^

just curious what amount would villain raise that you would consider calling after taking the bet / induce line?

imo if it was more than your imagined amount then your better of folding right? bet induce is kinda like bet folding if its more than the amount you think he would bluff ??

Originally posted by getdotacom
We should call there IMO. I think he's like always bluffing there if he thinks u're a fish. Can't see doing it for value from any reg against a fish. Your hand looks like Ax at best ( from a fish ) and I doubt he's value raising anything with that sizing against such a weak range. Maybe it's a little bit site dependent, fish play differently on many sites, but I doubt this line looks strong on any. Also I think we can easily discount at least half of his FH combos because he's raising AT,KT earlier, so it leaves him with 4 total combos of T8s and 88.

Thank you, finally somebody who has the same thoughts as me

don't get it why you guys don't put a lot of attention on his sizing , he goes all in and he is a regular , to do that he should understand :

1. Your range
2. What he is trying to fold from your range if he is bluffing
3. What you are going to call if he is value betting.

First of all if he puts you on weak range on that kind of board it's most likely going to be :

pp's 8x,KJ,KQ,Ax and bluffs.

2. If he is going to bluff: he realize that he is probably going to fold out Kx,8x,pp's (99,77,JJ,QQ) and air with ANY BET SIZING HE RAISES TO : like say he make it 130 ~. Only consideration is wether he thinks you are going to fold Ax to a shove than a smaller raise.If he thinks u are folding to a shove , but not 3x raise than he might be doing that more frequently , since u got a lot of Ax hands in this spot. But given that u are unknown and he prolly might think you are fish , he got no info for that too and no real reason to shove a bluff , than raise a bluff to 3x-4x

3. Even if he doesn't think you got a value hand he anyway understand that if he raise smaller and you call , you are going to call a shove too . So he can just hope that u got some Ax,Tx or whatever you can call him down.

Also about his perceived range : I dont get it why we only comment that he can have a lot of bluffs here :

first of all on the flop he calls - 8x , Gutters , overs , oesd , fd's.
I dont think he is going to raise maybe all the strong fd's - say KQs,Ax's or something like this.Also he wont repop hands like JQo,KJo and stuff - Ax,8x. On the river however his range looks like : flush , Ax,Kx,8x,99 , I don't see a lot of hands missing there , since that we should rely on the assumption he is going to turn a lot of his Kx,8x,99 into bluff , and also have discounted amount of Tx,Flushes,straight into his range. Given the bad odds we got to make that true I think it's more a FOLD than a call.

I think its quite possible for him to do this with AX to make you fold a split since you look like AX so much...

from value hands - everything should be raising on turn, on river with flushes/some miracle QJ, it depends how much of a calling station he sees you normally, it doesnt make sense to push with flush coz you should call him only with fh obv.

The more he perceives you as weak tagfishreg the more likely he is to have a worse hand imo.

but on the other hand I don't see him pure bluffing here (it has to be some SD value turned to bluff).

I would call

Originally posted by pleno1

Originally posted by Itsnevereasy
Have you considered check/calling the river? If you have, then how do you think it is better or worse then making a blocker bet?

I think betting to induce (my plan was to have this river sizing on every run out and induce floats on this flop) is way better than checking as we get value from ax that doesn't bet and we get him to raise to 180-230ish a lot of the time.

I just didn't expect the shove. But if i bet to induce I guess we should call.

I guess the part in bold says it all. If that was ur plan (and i wasnt in the hand so its hard for me to justify calling there) then i guess u should be sticking to that. Sizing sucks obv. but u wanted him to raise right?

Yeah, I called and he had 86o.

so his range actually becomes weaker with this sizing, right?