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Nl100 TP vs overbet river A

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PartyGaming - $1 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 197.31 BB
SB: 117.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♣ T♦

SB raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) 7♣ 2♥ 8♥
Hero checks, SB bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Turn: (16 BB, 2 players) 6♣
Hero checks, SB bets 21 BB, Hero calls 21 BB

River: (58 BB, 2 players) A♠
Hero checks, SB bets 88.5 BB and is all-in, Hero

220 hands
73% btn raise, 63% wwsf, 62% Afq
He always cbets (26/26), usually 75%pot, likes to overbet drawy boards, no reads on what he overbets.
4/9 cbet turn

My range is capped, but im not sure I can justify a call even against against an agressive villain like this, because he is repping a fair amount of good hands.

Btw he was owning me really hard (42% wwsf and descending red line) so if anyone wants to take a look at the HH to see what I was doing wrong I will appreciate it.


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3 replies
Kana54
Joined: 10.08.2010

Hello english community :)

I call because i'm a sick station you know :)

I think when he bets the turn, he will 3barrel you 90% of the time.
Here you are very very very capped to 8x or some P+D, but i think DP + would shove the turn more often to an overbet .

And you know i think calling turn and fold river here is spew.
On which river are we calling here if we fold on an ace ? 8 9 ? that's all.

If you fold on A i think you will fold on 80% cards of the deck.

Depending also if he is a good value bettor. ^^

Hoping understand my bad english. :f_grin:


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

hi

i think i would call. i expect him to valuebet all AX combos like that too. but i think you have enough to calldown when all draws are busted.

i´ll leave it open to let a heads-up specialist like Imfromsweden answer this.


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imfromsweden007
Joined: 11.10.2008

Hey,

Like always in heads up it's hard to give an answer with only seeing a single HH and some stats. Is he expecting you to roll over and just fold everything to an overbet here (since it's very hard for you to have anything better than a one-pair hand!) or has it gotten to the point where he thinks you're fed up with his aggresion and is expecting you to take a stand? In thtat case he probably thinks you're stationing 8x even, and you obviously want to fold!

But if I had to make a decision with only the facts presented, I would probably call. He overbets which I don't really expect him to do with Ax or any other one pair hands (partly because it doesn't make much sense for him to overbet turn with many Ax), and even 2pairs I'd expect him to bet smaller. So his range is really polarized towards sets/straights and bluffs. On this board he probably has a lot of draws that decide to overbet turn and then shove river because he expects you to fold everything, so I probably end up calling.

ifs


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