[NL5 SH] NF, TT44x board, river shove

Hey Th334,

It is not the best river to extract value with your flush. Overbetting is a little ambitious imo.

Also given that he is unlikely to have a flush, you are potentially missing value from other parts of his range like pocket pairs. What do you think he does with a hand like 88 here? JJ? 55? Does he call or fold?

Well, I would fold everything but a boat or NFD, but this guy actually found the call button with A-kicker...

The thing is that our effective stack is kinda small, and I think if this guy calls a small value bet with crappy hands on such a board, he might as well call a bigger bet with them. The fewer times when he calls our push will bring us a higher profit overall than the times when he calls a small bet more frequently, I guess.

If this guy can call your shove with Ace-high your value bet is clearly correct here.

I say that after the fact though.

From the hands that went before you have to decide whether this guy is just really bad or whether he is playing completely randomly with no disregard for his chips. Maybe on drugs or completely tilted. The absolute strength of your hand is obviously really good here. It's the relative strength that is in question. But if your opponent is not even looking at the board then that hardly matters.

Hey w34z3l,

I was just looking through some theory, and stumbled upon an idea that we don't always push all-in with a very strong hand on the river. In cases like ours, where the opponent showed no significant strength, small bet might allow him to call with his bluff catchers (small pairs, like you said), while a big one will chase them away.

So I think you are right that it's not a default shove here. But as I label "a fish" only the guys who have only a vague idea about poker and play randomly, I thought that a hero-call with some trash is definitely not out of question

Thanks for the evaluation.