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3bet pot overbet river

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PokerStars - $1 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 102 BB
SB: 142.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♦ A♦

SB raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, SB calls 5 BB

Flop: (14 BB, 2 players) 4♣ 4♦ 5♣
Hero bets 8 BB, SB calls 8 BB

Turn: (30 BB, 2 players) 3♦
Hero checks, SB checks

River: (30 BB, 2 players) 3♠
Hero??? (87 BB), fold

Its a fine spot to overbet the river with A high?
99+ 4bet pre. Nutted hands, 5x and 66-88 bet the turn most of the time, so his range is capped to A high and we can still have many strong hands going for a c/r turn.


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3 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

Why don't you just bet Turn shove River? You have so much equity in the hand on the Turn with your flush, and double gutter and one overcard outs.

I think there's a good chance he double floats Ace high and maybe folds the River.

Thanks.


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I would not feel comfortable shoving the river with A high because if he folds Ax on the turn its a terrible play).

And by c/r I collect more money from his floats and at the same time I gain valuable info.

The hands you are targetting with bet, bet, shove (A high) have a difficult time against my line, they either bet the turn and are forced to fold, or checkback and face a tough river with a faceup range.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

What do you think his floats are? I think he isn't going to float you here with stuff like KQ too often. I would argue that majority of his F calling range is Ace high and pocket pairs. And he has way more combos of Ace high than pocket pairs.

C/R turn doesn't make too much sense when I think he shows down his Ace highs most of the time, he doesn't have too many flop floats with no showdown value, besides the occasional straight draw like 67 78 68.

Thus, I think his turn betting range is weighted towards pocket pairs, which are snapping off your check/raise.

If you barrel, sometimes your assumptions about when he folds AX are wrong. But still you have so much equity in the hand. And the turn brings a gutshot for AX and board is still pretty draw heavy so I think he calls again on Turn more often than not.


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