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bluff catch river vs missed gutters

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PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $20.00
Hero (BTN): $60.49
SB: $50.00

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has 7♣ 5♣

Hero raises to $1.00, fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.25, 2 players) Q♣ 4♥ A♦
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.25, 2 players) 7♥
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($5.25, 2 players) 9♣
BB bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00

villain is a fish. i call river vs missed gut shots. how to play this correctly?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

Flop: Bet is too large. vs a 40bb stack, you can just halfpot your entire range here and on most semi-dry flops, and maybe bet 40% pot on super dry flops like A22r.

River spot is close. You are getting 2/9,25 pot odds = 21.6%. A call here can never be too wrong, and fishes tend to bluff with smaller sizes.

In terms of combos, we beat KT KJ JT which is 48 combos, maybe even a hand like 53s too (4 combos). We would need him to have ~ 200 combos of AX hands here. I think it's safe to say that we are beating a sufficient portion of his range.

Thanks.


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