[Sh] Nl50 AQ

Heya,

I'd say he 4bets AK and KK+ preflop so he is left with A4s and 44 so 6 combos that beat you. I'd say you can call and play some turns IP. 100bb deep I would definitely not fold and seriously consider a stack off. OOP I think this would be a close fold because of poor playability but with position you can outplay any draw and you don't pay off his very narrow nut range.

I am pretty sure he doesn't have AK in his 4b range. Even 100bb deep he is just a passive donkey. Wide pre but prolly very tight w stacking off and overall 4b.

The way I see it:
-he has possibly every combo except KK on flop
-he never plays FD aggro

Even for a 100bb we are pretty much very optimistically hopping he stacks smth like AT AJ on flop?

Or am I to nitty here?

When you are 100bb deep you've already put 23bb in the pot or more, he has very few combos that beat you (imo) so you don't need him to have that many worse hands like Kx with diamonds, JTdd, QJdd, AQ and a few other hands that raise/fold.

Don't get me wrong, it's not a thrilling spot, it's just because you have so little left behind when his value range is so incredibly narrow and CAN have some hands that you beat that stack off, albeit not a huge amount of those.

Board: A♦4♦K♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    35.10%  34.43%   0.67% { AcQh }
MP3    64.90%  64.23%   0.67% { 44, A4s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd }

That's absolute worst case scenario imo and it represent only 11 combos of hands (1% range) out of a total of 40% starting range.

I see I got my maths + EQ wrong. Deffo a stackoff for 100bb but prolly just BE over a long run.

TY!

Originally posted by Gregor86
I see I got my maths + EQ wrong. Deffo a stackoff for 100bb but prolly just BE over a long run.

TY!

Yep, really really close to BE and sucks but I think folding loses you more than just getting it in..