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set vs fish on 4 to a straight nl200

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eszibit
Joined: 10.12.2007

Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG: $351.59 (175.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $200 (100 bb)
CO: $568.69 (284.3 bb)
BTN: $619.87 (309.9 bb)
SB: $218.57 (109.3 bb)
BB: $203 (101.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5 5
UTG folds, Hero raises to $6, CO folds, BTN calls $6, SB calls $5, BB folds

Flop: ($20) 5 J A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14, SB folds

Turn: ($48) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $42, BTN calls $42

River: ($132) T (2 players)
Hero bets $41, BTN raises to $557.87 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$214 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 5 J A Q T
Hero mucked 5 5 and lost (-$103 net)
BTN mucked and won $211 ($108 net)

Fish 41/12 in 140 hands ,no special reads except that he min 3bet me earlier with KK .

Standard line i guess?

Edited


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3 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

You posted the wrong hand here.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

This hand is mainly about whether he has worse AX and twopairs vs straights and flushes.

So our options are between block betting and check/folding. I don't think his range is overly wide here despite him being loose. Most of his calling is done from the blinds.

This seems really close, depending on our assumptions about number of flushes he has in his range and also how often he calls AX on the River. Having the WTSD may help.

1) All Suited Aces, Some off suit Aces, All twopairs and flushes and straights

Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.47% 42.47% 0.00% TT, AQs, ATs-A7s, A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Kh9h, Qh9h, Kh8h, Qh8h, 9h8h, Kh7h, Qh7h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Kh6h, Qh6h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Kh5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, Kh4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, Kh3h, 5h3h, Kh2h, AQo, ATo-A7o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
MP3 57.53% 57.53% 0.00% 5s5c

2) I removed A7-A9 off suit, leaving all suited Aces in.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 52.10% 52.10% 0.00% TT, AQs, ATs-A7s, A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Kh9h, Qh9h, Kh8h, Qh8h, 9h8h, Kh7h, Qh7h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Kh6h, Qh6h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Kh5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, Kh4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, Kh3h, 5h3h, Kh2h, AQo, ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
MP3 47.90% 47.90% 0.00% 5s5c

If he has lower WTSD I will check/fold. If he has super high WTSD like 40% and he is really passive then I prefer your line. As you can see from the equities for the optimistic and conservative estimates, it is a close decision.

Thanks.


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eszibit
Joined: 10.12.2007

His wtsd is 18% in 140 hands so i guess a check/fold is better . I thought it's a clear block bet here ,didn't really thought about check/folding.

Thx


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