nl200 AJ tptk 3way

Hi.

1) I don't think calling is an option here. We either shove or fold. BB's c/r isn't too high at 10%. That makes me more inclined to think that he is on fewer backdoor club draws. Vs a wider c/r range I would probably shove here. This guy is kind of tight so I think it is not as simple as it seems.

2) Depends on how often you are stabbing here. I think he may not necessarily bluff CR you that much. You should start providing overall general stats like VPIP/PFR/hands. It's really difficult to assess someone's tendencies based on a very specific statistic. If he plays only QQ+ preflop, then don't you think a 10% CR stat is very low? On the other hand if he plays 100% of hands, I think a 10% CR range is really wide.

My guess is that we should probably fold the Turn. I am not putting him on too many club flush draws and air, and I think the 8 coordinates the board a lot. But if you can somehow show that his range is wider here, then we should shove the Turn. I just personally feel that he hardly has any clubs here. Not sure why you didn't add stuff like T9s in his stacking off range.

Thanks.

he plays 25/20 with 20%bb call vs steal over 17k hands

"Not sure why you didn't add stuff like T9s in his stacking off range."
{ 77, 44, T8s+, 98s, 65s, KhQh, KcQc, AhTh, AcTc, KhTh, QhTh, Ah9h, Ac9c, Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah5h }

so what range would you put him on? it's would be easier for me to understand why would you fold if you write range, and I can check my equity against range that I put him on, and how does my equity change against range you put him on

Ah ok, I thought that was under the category of suited one gappers. My bad. 10% seems kind of low over a huge sample size. But maybe if you are perceived to be stabbing at the Flop a lot he may get pissed off and raise some junk hand. He could also potentially flat some flush draws as opposed to checkraising all of them

1) Wide Checkraise range

Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.82% 42.82% 0.00% AsJc
MP3 57.18% 57.18% 0.00% 77, 44, T9s, KhQh, KcQc, AhTh, AcTc, KhTh, KcTc, QhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Th8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah3h, Ah2h

Odds: 166/400 = 41.5%

If his range is this wide, I think it's a shove here. You can try to change the Turn card (and edit his Turn barreling range) and see how your equity changes.

2) More conservative range

Equity Win Tie
MP2 32.78% 32.78% 0.00% AsJc
MP3 67.22% 67.22% 0.00% 77, 44, T9s, KhQh, KcQc, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Th8h, Ah7h

3) Conservative range on a better Turn card (Kc)

Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.05% 42.05% 0.00% AsJc
MP3 57.95% 57.95% 0.00% 77, 44, T9s, KhQh, KcQc, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Th8h, Ah7h

It seems that on non-coordinating Turn clubs we have an easy shove. In the conservative range I provided in (2), I think I excluded a good amount of heart draws, and I only put in 1 combo of KcQc. His range needs to be a lot wider in order to justify shoving here.

Conclusion: I think it's a close fold.

thanks a lot, that is analysis I was looking for:)