[SH][NL25] analyzing a hand otr [KF27]

KillerFishes

Joined: 11.07.2010

Posts: 669

11.02.2013, 14:09 0

PartyGaming - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $29.38
Hero (SB): $29.62
BB: $61.90
UTG: $34.06
MP: $27.53
CO: $42.74

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 7♠ 6♠

UTG raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.35, fold, UTG calls $1.60

Flop: ($4.95, 2 players) 8♦ 3♠ 8♠
Hero bets $2.75, UTG calls $2.75

Turn: ($10.45, 2 players) T♥
Hero bets $5.75, UTG calls $5.75

River: ($21.95, 2 players) 3♣
Hero bets $6.25, UTG calls $6.25

Hey, opponent is thinking player.
19/14
RFI UTG - 18
Ft3bet 76

ott I'm trying to fold all his AQ,AK,AJ,KQ without FD, these he's deffo calling..

otr that's exactly the part of his range I'm trying to get rid off with ridiculous sizing, but he's still folding imho? I can easily rep Tx for thin value from Ahigh for instance... etc..

he should have at least 5 combos of missed flush (AJs,AKs,AQs,KQs,QJs agree?) .. the problem is the T ott, because JT,T9 is not folding anymore .. but still I need like 22%FE only? => I need at maximum 22 combos otr which concludes 5 of these missed flushes.. 17 calling vs 5 folding

(6JJ, 6QQ, 1JTs,1T9s,4ATs) better (AJs,AKs,AQs,KQs,QJs) worse
and I get 18 calling vs 5 folding (and who knows if always)

=> therefore it's a spew?

thx

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2 replies

EmanuelC16

Joined: 02.01.2010

Posts: 12,242

11.02.2013, 14:23 0

Heya,

I think the main problem vs a thinking player here is that you are not representing any hand.. If you bet/bet/shove you rep JJ+ or at least QQ+ plus some 8x that hit postflop.

When you bet like this, although I can't think of an exact range to give you, I would probably just call you off with any pair plus I personally would not get to the river with A high like this.

I think your bet will not work often enough for the 2 reasons:
a) you are betting into a range with showdown value with almost no A highs (A high FD has overs, will get it in on flop quite often imo)
b) you are not representing the top of you range when you start with a polarized 3bet pre so if you are capped with this sizing and polarized from the beginning, you are very unlikely to have a value hand.

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jules97

Joined: 10.06.2012

Posts: 1,450

11.02.2013, 15:28 0

I agree.

He is tight.

He is calling 3bets with TT-QQ, AQo and AQs and some AK. He may call more because your 3bet from SB isn't exactly huge.

The value in 3betting is gettinng him to fold preflop. When he calls, its obvious he has you beat on the flop. He is never folding an overpair on that flop.
So the standard play would be to check/fold and be done with it.

Let's say he has 15 Ax (minus his nutflush draw) 15 overpairs on the flop. Will he fold his Ax to a cbet? Then I can see you betting here with your FD.

If he still has some Ax on the turn then there may be some thin value in betting this with your FD, but you need the FE on the turn and you probably need the FE on the river when you shove.

When you get to the river, you should know? Does he call light or hero fold? You could fire a 3rd barrel and try and push him off his overpair.

But as a rule I wouldn't be trying to do this and you should know if this is an option at the start of the hand, based on your reads of your oppoenent.

And your sizing should represent, from the flop onwards, that if he wants to see a showdown, he's going to have to put his whole stack on the line.

As played, your river bet has, I think, zero hands left in his range that fold to that size bet. Zero.

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