100NL KK- overpair OTR

Hi.

I would bet/fold $50. I think he can still call with KJs and AJ. He is also not likely to have a set after calling the Turn, since the flop is really draw heavy and there are so many action killing cards like the 8 or T. We are mostly losing to slowplayed T8s and we are beating a ton of JX hands.

Thanks.

Hi!

Why bet/fold 50$? I seem to miss smth?

I don't see him having any 7X in his range besides 77 and maybe 79. I think the presence of the 2nd 7 just reduces all these value combos from his range.

Secondly, I don't see him having the backdoor flush too often. We also have Kh which blocks off some KhXh type of hands from his range.

Thirdly, I think we have the best hand here really often. I never expect him to have a set here cos he would probably raise the Turn with them, given how draw heavy the board is. On the river, he has VERY FEW flushes, and 4 combos of T8s. Besides that, we are beating a ton of AJ/KJ on the river which may potentially call a bet.

I also went with the assumption that he isn't too good of a player, since he's 20/12, but hey the sample size is small so maybe he turns out to be a normal reg. But if he's 20/12 over a large sample then I would assume he's a weaker reg and I think the value bet here becomes easier.

Thanks/