Kk

Hi x3mwisp,

On your decent range of TT-QQ, AQs you are now crushed by TT(1 combo) and AQs(1 combo) while you are still ahead of JJ(6 combo) and QQ(6 combo).

If you increase his range, say you can also add AJs there and some 88-99 maybe and you are still way ahead. I can't see many other completed draws, unless you imply that he could somehow find a flat with A9s or 98s which is very unlikely from a 17/15/5 player.

Tbh, I rarely expect to see this bet-sizing with some Tx that somehow, somewhere, got into his range or with completed hand(like AA or KK). I think he would be more inclined to pot it in order to protect from A or (if he already has the A :spade:) to get value from overpairs.

It seems more likely to me that this is either the stone cold nuts with which he wants to induce or some showdown value hand like a pocket(88-QQ) with which he feels he does not need to blow the pot but he would still prefer to take the pot here because many river cards hurt him. Also, I would not be surprised to see QQ or JJ with a :spade:, or AK with A :spade:, although I think he would bet a bit bigger with those.

Overall, I think the odds you are getting are way too good to fold here. I would c/c and then probably c/f the river because I can't see him turning any of the above into a bluff. An exception on the river would be if I hit the :spade:, in which case he might decide to turn small pockets(88-99) to bluff or to thin value Q :spade:. Another exception would be if he bets smallish(~50-60%), because then he still has some JJ and QQ in his thin value range.

Oh, forgot to mention that I would c/c c/f 'as played'. Because in principle I would just b/f the turn for value, I don't see these tight players turning A or small pockets with FD into a bluff or shoving JJ+, so if he shoves I think he actually has it, but I think most of the time he will just call and we get value big time.

I agree with the above poster, and also take a look at his sizing. Such a measly looking bet doesn't look like quads or a flush, it looks like JJ/QQ wanting to protect/get thin value. Folding the turn would be really bad I would say. I think calling turn and re-evaluating river is a lot better.