Hello.
Villain is 20/17 reg (MP open 16%, 3.5k hands) who I have a little history with. He knows I c/r often my draws as well as monster value hands. I think before we had a similar hand where c/r on the flop and he calls, then folded to 2/3 on completed FD turn.
C-bet: 62%
Fold c-bet to check raise: ~44% (12)
Fold to turn bet after calling flop raise: 52% (6)
Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
UTG: $48.27 (96.5 bb)
MP: $170.47 (340.9 bb)
BB: $93.04 (186.1 bb)
Hero (SB): $88.20 (176.4 bb)
BTN: $53.77 (107.5 bb)
CO: $59.30 (118.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with J
Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop: ($3.50) 4
T A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.49, Hero raises to $7.50, MP calls $5.01
Turn: ($18.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $13.50, MP calls $13.50
River: ($45.50) 4
(2 players)
I think it's nice spot for c/r and plan to barrel any heart, J/Q/K (do you barrel others? Is this enough cards to make c/r-barrel profitable vs. this opponent?).
Flop
My estimate of his range after calling flop: KK-QQ,ATs+,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AJo+
Reasoning: I think given my c/r is fairly high he will be 3-bet calling with all sets and Ahxh while bluff catching some other hands. I think maybe he also 3-bet calls KhJh/KhQh/QhJh
Thing is he may think it more profitable to flat flop/jam blank turns with his sets, since I will barrel a lot of turn cards here. So maybe he has set combos here?
Turn
After he calls turn, I think: AQ+,ATs,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh
But again, he may have those sets he was planning to jam on blanks that he now calls hoping to spike a pair on the river.
River
Board pairs and isn't great card for us I think. I'm not sure whether to bet here. We maybe make the following combos fold:
AQ+ (28)
ATs (4)
And get called/shoved on by:
KhQh (1)
KhJh (1)
QhJh (1)
And if he slow plays:
44 (3)
TT (3)
AA (3)
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Do you think my estimates of his ranges are way out or OK? Do you bet large on the river here hoping to make AQ/AK/AT fold (since often he calls w Ah)? Personally, looking at it now, I think betting is clearly best option.
Thanks!
