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ATs vs strange postflop play.

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noob3r
Joined: 20.11.2009

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $300(BB) Replayer
SB ($7,118)
BB ($16,142)
UTG ($13,643)
UTG+1 ($11,815)
UTG+2 ($2,570)
Hero ($13,832)
MP2 ($18,932)
CO ($20,651)
BTN ($3,567)

Dealt to Hero A♦ T♦

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $600, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $300

FLOP ($1,710) T♥ 6♣ 9♦

BB checks, Hero bets $825, BB calls $825

TURN ($3,360) T♥ 6♣ 9♦ 5♦

BB bets $1,500, Hero calls $1,500

RIVER ($6,360) T♥ 6♣ 9♦ 5♦ 7♥

BB bets $3,900, Hero ???

Villain is 13/10 for 330 hands, 17%(6) def from BB, and 0(3) fold to cbet. He raised once.

On that board I think I should've bet more?

What do You think he is leading with on that turn? Guess its standart call with the nut FD, but I got really confused when he led at me there. Couldnt really put him on a range..

The river sucks, but Im not sure how many 8x he plays that way. Prolly not many. Maybe 78s that he led on the turn to under rep his hand?


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chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

Hi all,

This is very often a set from my experience. They decide to check/call the flop then see some scary-ish turn card and bet it for protection. It can however also be a hand like KQdd, KJdd, QJdd. With that in mind, we're looking at around 25% equity against a range of T9s, 66, 99, TT, KJdd, KQdd and QJdd. So when deciding between calling and folding, folding appears slightly better (thus I'd call because I feel he has just a few more random bluffs in his range).

I'm really liking a shove though. I don't think he has any 88 combinations here, and I don't think sets just stupidly bet/call rivers here. It's definitely a very exploitable play, but I feel it gets through easily often enough.


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