NL100 33 3bet pot IP

Hi,

You can't just put every combo of JT in there, it would be a horribly overplay with JT, and I can't imagine even the worst regs playing like that. Stoving makes no sense at all unless the range is correct.

More realistically is JJ-99, maybe 25% of JT combos (i'm being very optimistic here), and a few bluffs (not sure how likely this is). I think river is close, but a fold is probably correct, despite the pot-odds. If you have any read that he's spazzy/likes to pull big bluffs/overvalues hands/etc then I'd call.

I'd also size it bigger on the turn and definitely smaller on the river. I think most regs would snap-fold AA on the river to your river sizing. The board already hits your range good enough, don't give them another reason to fold.

ifs

Wow, after reading the evaluation of this hand I realize I must "hero"call way too much..

But really can we fold 33 here? If we fold 33 here what are we calling then? Only 99, TT (assuming JJ is a 4bet/call)? I agree though that we do probably overplay our hand if we have JT in villains spot. But then on the other hand this guy is clearly 3betting a ton so he must have a bunch of stuff in his range that he can do some crazy stuff with and then he is also very aggressive in general on top of that. But yeah I agree, on this board bet c/C c/jam seems kinda nutty, so maybe we can fold after all

And as for snap/folding AA OTR, really? In hero's shoes I'd bet AJ for value here as a default, not this big though, with the assumption that most villains bet their QQ+ (or better) OTT most of the times.

Originally posted by axelphoney
Wow, after reading the evaluation of this hand I realize I must "hero"call way too much..

But really can we fold 33 here? If we fold 33 here what are we calling then? Only 99, TT (assuming JJ is a 4bet/call)? I agree though that we do probably overplay our hand if we have JT in villains spot. But then on the other hand this guy is clearly 3betting a ton so he must have a bunch of stuff in his range that he can do some crazy stuff with and then he is also very aggressive in general on top of that. But yeah I agree, on this board bet c/C c/jam seems kinda nutty, so maybe we can fold after all

And as for snap/folding AA OTR, really? In hero's shoes I'd bet AJ for value here as a default, not this big though, with the assumption that most villains bet their QQ+ (or better) OTT most of the times.

This is key though. If I had AA I would CRAI vs a smaller bet and fold to a bigger bet, because literally everyone bets small with weaker hands/showdown value, and bet big with bluffs/strong hands. In this spot people are massively weightened towards value in their big bet sizing, so that's a snap-fold, whereas the small betsizing contains AJ and similar so so often. You can argue it sometimes contains some 2pairs as well, but most of those bet big as well. This is a read that holds true a ridicilous % of the time, everyone plays 100% the same.

As for what we can call, JT should be a better call than 33, since we block sets from him, and we assume he's not shoving worse for value almost ever. And on top of that, we can also have a lot of straights as well, so wouldn't worry too much about that.

Ok, you have convinced me it is a fold, but it is really gross

And as for the riversizing with different holdings. In villain shoes with AJ how big would you make it? I usually go for big or semi-big in these spots with my entire range.. If we bet like around half pot with AJ and other less nutty hands, how do we balance it with bluffs? I think my reasoning is a bit flawed, but I am usaully not betting too small with either the bottom of my valuerange (the "thin value" part) or as a bluff because I just simply can't see that we will have enough FEQ to be able to use a smalelr sizing as a bluff.

Thoughts on that?

Well at least it's better than all of those people who use the small sizing every time they thinly valuebet! Personally, it's different in different spots, in some I'd bet small with my entire range, some big with entire range, and some I would range split and have two balanced ranges for two different betsizes.